This is how the Veneto region is turning to technology to cope with the challenges of an ageing population
The view that technology can cushion the fiscal impact of an ageing population is now widely accepted in much of the economic literature on the subject
The Veneto region has one of the highest old-age indices in Italia. In 2005, the ratio of the population aged over 65 to that aged under 14 was one to one; by 2025, this had risen to two to one and, according to Istat projections, it will be three to one by 2050.
The population pyramid, with a broad base of young people and a narrow apex of older people, has effectively been inverted, with a consequent serious impact on healthcare expenditure.
Over the years, the proportion of people aged over 65 has risen from 19 per cent in 2005 to the current 25 per cent, and is expected to reach 35 per cent by 2050, with those aged over 85, a group that accounts for the largest share of healthcare expenditure, rising from 4 per cent to 8 per cent. Compared with the rest of Europe, Italia – like the Veneto region – is ageing not because of excessive longevity — a phenomenon common to many wealthy countries — but due to a more rapid decline in the under-14s, who in 2025 fell to 11.9 per cent (from 14.1 per cent in 2005) compared with the EU average of 14.4 per cent. Yet, looking solely at the latest available figure, one might think the opposite. As at 1 January 2025, the Veneto region had 4,849,553 residents, 1,256 more than the previous year: although minimal, this change is positive and bucks the national trend (–0.05 per cent compared with +0.03 per cent regionally). This represents genuine stability, which has persisted for three years and has slowed the decline that began in 2014. However, it is, in fact, merely a slowdown: ISTAT’s own projections indicate a return to decline, with an estimated loss of around 68,000 residents by 2040 and 168,000 by 2050.
Put in these terms, the issue bears a close resemblance to a debate currently taking place elsewhere, on a much larger scale. In March, a group of researchers led by the Australian ecologist Corey Bradshaw published a study in *Environmental Research Letters* arguing that the world’s population has already exceeded the planet’s sustainable carrying capacity, setting the threshold for a decent standard of living within the limits of renewable resources at around 2.5 billion people — compared with the current figure of 8 billion. Whilst we are aware that this study requires some interpretative caution due to certain methodological aspects, the question it raises – namely, how many people a system can support given the constraints of available resources – is the very same one we must ask ourselves today when planning healthcare expenditure for a region such as Veneto. The difference is that here the constraint is not the planet’s natural resources, but the tax revenue generated by a shrinking working-age population.
The view that technology can cushion the fiscal impact of an ageing population is now widely accepted in much of the economic literature on the subject. However, when it works, it does so through three distinct mechanisms. The first helps to reduce the unit cost of care through telemedicine, remote monitoring and AI-assisted diagnostics, which enable a shift from reactive medicine – ‘you fall ill, so I treat you’ – to predictive medicine, whereby the acute phase of a chronic condition is anticipated, thereby avoiding hospitalisation. Assistive robotics, by providing intelligent systems and devices to support older people and those with disabilities, will help reduce the number of hours of human labour required for daily care, thereby facilitating a better allocation of resources.
