The data

Oracle: Quarterly earnings disappoint. The share price falls in after hours

The company reported sales of USD 16.06 billion. The consensus expected 16.2 billion.

(Reuters)

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The Oracle has had its say on the quarterly figures. Put differently: the company founded by Larry Ellison, which has become central to the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) - at least that made in the USA - has published its numbers for the second quarter 2025-2026.

Data below expectations

Expectation was high and, at least for now, the group disappointed. Oracle's total revenue came in at 16.06 billion, compared to analysts' average estimate of 16.21 billion, according to LSEG. Not only that. Cloud sales increased by 34 per cent to USD 7.98 billion, but the market expected more. As higher was the consensus regarding the infrastructure division - one of the most closely monitored by analysts - which generated 4.08 billion in sales. Of course, in the face of such a performance, investors started selling on the stock, which fell in the after hours.

Loading...

Adjusted quarterly profit, for its part, was $2.26 per share. But the profit included a one-off pre-tax gain of $2.7 billion from the sale of the stake in chip designer Ampere Computing. A transaction, with respect to which Ellison explained that he chose to sell the stake to SoftBank - which bought it for $6.5 billion last March - because 'it is no longer strategic to continue to design, manufacture and use our chips in cloud data centres'.

The ambitious project

In general, it should be remembered, the company has outlined a particularly ambitious expansion path. In a presentation released in October, the company indicated that the area dedicated to cloud infrastructure could generate up to USD 166 billion in revenue by 2030, while total group revenue, in the same scenario, could reach USD 225 billion, with adjusted earnings per share around USD 21. These targets assume much faster growth than at present and accelerating demand for Ia services.

Among the more constructive observers, the idea prevailed that the quarterly report could represent a moment of discontinuity. A confirmation that the demand for Artificial Intelligence solutions comes from a wide range of customers, and not only from big names like OpenAI, would have reinforced the narrative of structural rather than episodic growth. This, at least according to the immediate analysis of the results, was not the case.

The many problems

In this regard, it should be noted that the situation is not without its critical aspects. The high volume of capital earmarked for the construction of new data centres exposes the group to the risk of overcapacity if the deployment of artificial intelligence applications does not proceed at the expected pace. A slowdown in demand, together with rising financial costs, could weigh on operating margins and limit cash generation. This would have immediate effects on both the stock valuation and market sentiment towards the AI-cloud model.

A sign of caution also came from the credit market. The cost of insuring against an Oracle default has risen sharply: five-year credit default swaps, which stood at around 60 basis points at the beginning of October, peaked at 124, then fell back to around 117 basis points. Beyond the recent drop, the movement remains indicative of an increased perception of risk, with bond investors more concerned about the sustainability of future cash flows.

That said, the options assessment indicates that traders anticipate a possible swing of almost 10% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of this magnitude, compared to Monday's close, could take the stock to a new all-time high above $240 in the upside scenario, or bring it back to $199 at the lower end of the range, the level touched late last month.

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti