Banks weak on government tax fears. Awaiting the choice of Mediobanca's top management

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)-Banks are weak in Piazza Affari, while investors are wondering about the government's moves, with Economy Minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, who has repeatedly called for a sacrifice of the sector in view of the next financial manoeuvre. So they travel in the red Banco Bpm , Banca Mps , Banca Pop Er , Banca Pop Sondr ,Intesa Sanpaolo , Mediobanca and Unicredit .

According to the Il Sole 24 Ore at the weekend, 'qualified sources in the majority have clarified that the objective being looked at, in the context of the negotiations between the government and the banks for a hypothetical contribution in view of the next budget law, is to arrive at collecting 2.5-3 billion'. The same sources emphasised, however, that 'everything will be decided together with the banks'. In the meantime, the debate between the government forces continues, with the League that, through the calculation of the Carroccio economic group, would like to see a contribution from the banking sector of 5 billion euro to support families, artisans, traders, and businesses, and Forza Italia that instead criticises the concept of extra-profits, with the leader, Antonio Tajani, who has defined it as "a Soviet Union-style bill".

Intermonte argues that the modalities for a taxation of the banking system could be, also according to media reports, a extension of the manoeuvre carried out last year (suspension of Dta compensation), a tax on the value of the buyback made and a temporary increase in IRES. A tax calculated on the intermediation margin, following the Spanish model, could also be studied. "We consider it likely that a possible contribution could be made through a extension of the suspension of Dta compensation, which would also have a marginal impact and only in terms of liquidity," commented the sim's analysts, adding: "a tax on the value of buybacks would have a marginal impact on banks' profits, and only limited to Unicredit and partially to Intesa Sanpaolo. An increase in IRES, on the other hand, would have a higher but limited impact'.

Meanwhile, Unicredit's shares are under the microscope after the bank announced the completion of the first tranche of the buyback programme, which started on 25 July 2025. The programme ended on 26 September 2025 with the total purchase of 1.77% of the share capital, for a countervalue of approximately EUR 1.8bn. The second tranche will start after the publication of the third quarter 2025 results. Intermonte recommends caution on the shares of the bank led by Andrea Orcel ('Neutral' with price target at EUR 61).

The spotlight is also on Mediobanca, while waiting for the top management of Mps to choose the names of the managers who will lead the institution. In these days the agenda of the CEO of Mps, Luigi Lovaglio, is full of meetings, with a meeting of the board already today, 29 September, and a new meeting that should be set in the second half of the week to draw up the list of names to be deposited on Friday, in view of the shareholders' meeting of Mediobanca on 28 October, with the renewal of the board of directors on the agenda. On the business front, moreover, according to media reports, a dozen or so Mediobanca managers are expected in Siena tomorrow to meet not only Lovaglio but also managers from the Mps front line. The visit should then be reciprocated next week when Mps top management will travel to Milan. The aim will be to speed up the drafting of an industrial plan that Lovaglio must present to the ECB within six months.