Ships, armoured vehicles and the agri-food sector. Moscow advances into the Mediterranean

As we write, a naval military exercise is taking place off the coast of Tripoli, involving not only Libyan vessels and personnel but also Italian, Algerian, Moroccan, Tunisian and French military personnel. Not to mention Malta, Mauritania, Portugal and Spain. The aim: to combat illegal immigration, human trafficking and arms trafficking. A few days ago in Bizerte, in Tunisia, under the command of the Sixth Fleet, US marines were training local special forces and those of the Tripoli government. Phoenix Express 2026 was the name of the exercise. It too was aimed at combating illicit trafficking. With one additional detail: activities were also carried out to counter cyber-attacks targeting ships. This bears a striking resemblance to the so-called Russian ‘shadow fleet’. And perhaps this focus is no coincidence.

It is true that, for some time now, an average of 80 ships have been stationed in the Mediterranean, all too often switching off their transponders; yet it will not have escaped anyone’s notice that in recent months – and particularly since August – Vladimir Putin’s Russia has stepped up its activities with the clear aim of expanding its presence in the Mare Nostrum. These are many seemingly separate incidents, but it is worth connecting them like dots on a map. Let’s start in the east, with Syria. A convoy of four vessels (a cargo ship, two oil tankers and a destroyer) docked at Tartus, after months during which no Russian ships had been detected in the country.

In Egypt, whilst Italians were on holiday, Russia secured two significant deals. Firstly, it appointed Artur Lyukmanov as ambassador, who previously served as director of the Department for International Information Security. He is not a diplomat but an expert in security matters in fields often related to the intelligence services. The aim is to create a Russian-Arab cyber coalition with an anti-Western agenda. Shortly before that, in July, Moscow began construction of two logistics hubs (granted by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for 99 years) at the entrance to and exit from Suez. In September, four Russian defence companies took part in the defence exhibition in El Alamein with the aim of securing agreements beyond the satellite sector. A little further west lies Cyrenaica. And it is in this part of Libya that the Kremlin is concentrating its military efforts.

A report by an independent US think tank has revealed the presence of military personnel and mercenaries from Africa Corps at no fewer than six air bases. These range from Tamanhint and Maaten Al-Sarra in the south, to Al-Khadim near Sirte, via Al-Jufra. Satellite images show work underway to rebuild buildings and hangars and to widen the runways. More recently, whilst the four ships mentioned above were heading for Syria, three others diverted to Tobruk, which is under the control of Khalifa Haftar. The two cargo ships, escorted by a Ropucha-class landing craft, unloaded MRAP-type mine-resistant armoured vehicles and APCs for troop transport. The operation took place late in the evening, around 10 pm. According to sources consulted, the vehicles may have headed south, specifically towards Tamanhint and Maaten Al-Sarra, but also towards Al-Jufra and Al Khadim. Coincidentally, these are the towns that are home to airbases reinforced by Africa Corps. According to local media, the next objective could be to support Haftar against the tribes of Fezzan. Some of these tribes, as recently reported by Agenzia Nova, are ready to do battle against the Benghazi-Moscow alliance. It is worth noting Eni’s presence in the area.

Even looking towards Algeria, a certain pattern of activity can be traced. Over the past year, more than 160 cargo ships acting on behalf of the Kremlin have called at Oun El Bouaghi and Ain Oussera. It is not known what they were carrying. On the other hand, a delegation of Algerian MPs flew to Moscow in early September with the aim of strengthening ties.