Tariffs, Panetta: 'Burden so far paid mainly by US economy'

In Europe 'there is no innovative energy in circulation and how to change the European manufacturing identity is one of the greatest challenges facing our continent over the next ten years'. Thus Giuliano Noci, pro-rector of the Milan Polytechnic, during the round table organised by Assiom Forex in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, entitled 'Technological innovation, energy production and financial markets'. From the point of view of the financial system, the lecturer explained, it is necessary 'to create an ecosystem that acts as a transmission belt between private equity, extraordinary finance, and young Italians who want to do business'. It is therefore necessary to create 'an inter-generational pact', i.e. 'to create transmission belts that, with new finance, feed the young people's desire for enterprise and make high-tech services for a manufacturing of small businesses. Young people must do digital services for Italian and European automotive, mechanical engineering and agro-industry companies'.

"Certainly yesterday's ruling" by the US Supreme Court "has created a new situation, but it has not brought the situation back to what it was before tariffs". Thus the chairman of Intesa Sanpaolo, Gian Maria Gros-Pietro on the sidelines of Assiom Forex. "It is a question of seeing with what measures the US administration will react, whether there will be damages to recover, which this would seem very difficult, the an and quantum debeatur".

"I did not see the end of a story, but a transition in a complex itinerary. In the meantime, as banks we have to be very close to companies, especially exporting ones, which find themselves with uncertain prospects". This was stated to Adnkronos by the president of Abi, Antonio Patuelli, on the sidelines of the 32nd Assiom Forex Congress, commenting on the US Supreme Court's decision to define the tariffs imposed by President Trump as illegitimate. "Governor Panetta said it very authoritatively" in his address to Congress "and other authoritative commentators confirm it, that the main problems with this US administration's tariffs have been for US citizens who have largely paid for them. Even if some of the cost has been passed on to manufacturers and exporters,' Patuelli added.

No fears for the savings managed by AI but an opportunity that will become an "accelerator" for the sector. This was stated by Giovanni Pirovano, president of Banca Mediolanum, on the occasion of the 32nd Assiom Forex Congress in Venice. "AI - according to Pirovano - is an available tool, an ally to be exploited for advisory services. We do not fear a negative impact, it can be an accelerator to dedicate ourselves to more important things'. The chairman of Mediolanum also dwelt on the importance of the digital euro, which is fundamental for 'European sovereignty' and the 'strengthening of the euro', which also makes it possible to be independent from international circuits such as Visa and Mastercard.

"Absolutely not. We are competitors of Mps and we have in no way provided solicitations, suggestions, recommendations for the composition of the list for the board of directors of Monte dei Paschi'. This was stated by the chairman of Banco Bpm, Massimo Tononi, on the sidelines of the 32nd Assiom Forex congress. "There is no element traceable" to the bank "in the names that have been formulated, which we do not even know," he added. Tononi went on to explain that he had read a name 'that is on our board of directors', namely Paolo Boccardelli: 'A person with whom I work well and esteem who has been expressed in our board of directors by Assogestioni, but he is not a name that we have suggested,' he concluded. 'We are competitors of Monte dei Paschi and we do not allow ourselves to enter into the composition of the list. Banco Bpm has just under 4% of the capital of Mps.

There are 'signs' emerging in the equity markets that 'seem to denote the start of a shift from a phase of generalised optimism to a more cautious assessment of risks. However, the resilience of the markets cannot be taken for granted'. So said Bank of Italia Governor Fabio Panetta at the 32nd Assiom Forex congress. Panetta also spoke of the recent downturns in US stock markets, especially in the tech sector, partly due to lower-than-expected balance sheet results.

"Even when initially circumscribed, the shocks that emerge in these areas can spread rapidly through financial interconnections and be amplified by contagion mechanisms," said the Palazzo Koch's number one, adding that this "requires a careful reading of the signals coming from the real economy and the financial sector".

The average growth of the US economy in 2025 of 3.2 per cent based on the figure published on the eve of the event, according to Bank of Italia Governor Fabio Panetta, "is affected by the long shutdown of the US economy, otherwise it would have been higher," he said, speaking off the cuff during his speech before the audience of the Assiom Forex financial traders' congress.

"In the most difficult times, from the sovereign debt crisis of 2011 to the pandemic shock, it was the banks, particularly the Italian ones, that ensured stability, supported public debt and financed the real economy. Today we are called upon to play a similar role in this, I would say epochal, phase of technological and economic transformation'. This was stated by Massimo Mocio during his speech at the 32nd Annual Congress of Financial Market Operators, emphasising that 'we need to act with timeliness and determination, concreteness and strategic vision'.

According to Mocio, 'in the digital field, the main challenge for banks - and in particular for European banks - will not be the disintermediation generated by digital assets, be they 'Central Bank Digital Currency', stablecoins or crypto-assets, but rather the ability to remain on the frontier of innovation, managing the increasing complexity and fragmentation of infrastructures - both payment and intermediation - and countering the inevitable competition from Fintechs'.

On the business financing front, "the greater attention to risk" on the part of banks "must not, however, translate into excessive caution, which could penalise entrepreneurial initiatives with valid prospects". This was one of the messages launched by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, during his speech at the 32nd Assiom Forex congress, currently underway in Venice. Speaking about the Italian economy, the number one at Palazzo Koch stressed how 'the banking system, long considered an element of fragility, has strengthened significantly' and how in recent months 'credit support for the Italian economy has also strengthened'. After two years of contraction, in fact, financing to businesses "has returned to growth, sustained by the greater need for investment". But the recovery concerns 'the most solid companies, regardless of size', while 'those with lower creditworthiness continue to record a reduction in loans'. For Panetta, this is an "evolution" that "reflects both the progressive refinement of bank customer selection techniques and the greater attention to risk in a still uncertain context". In any case, the ability to 'select borrowers' is 'a positive element'.

On the profit and loss account side, banking profitability 'remains high, despite the reduction in net interest income, thanks to fee income and the low level of loan adjustments. However, this favourable picture should not lead us to underestimate the risks', because 'balances can change rapidly'.

The introduction of tariffs last year by the Trump administration has so far backfired on the US economy and has not dampened international trade, according to Bank of Italia Governor Fabio Panetta's analysis. Last year, 'international trade grew by 4 per cent, a faster pace than world GDP and twice as fast as expected. The application of lower tariffs than initially announced and the absence of generalised retaliation, which mitigated the effects on global demand, contributed to this,' he says from the stage of the Assiom Forex financial operators' congress. According to available estimates, Panetta adds, 'the burden of tariffs would so far have fallen mainly on the US economy. Foreign exporters would have borne a limited share, estimated at around 10%. In a first phase

the impact was absorbed by the profit margins of US companies; then it was partly passed on to end consumers, who would bear about half of it today'. Overall, the tariffs would have contributed 'more than half a percentage point to inflation, which remains above the Fed's target'.

"I believe we need to encourage the development of private euro stablecoins, supported by banking consortia or individual European institutions, fully interoperable with the Central Bank infrastructure". This was stated by Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex, during the 32nd Annual Congress of Financial Market Operators at the Palazzo del Casinò on the Venice Lido.

"As clarified by Piero Cipollone, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank - and several times a welcome guest at our conferences - Europe must focus on a two-tier system: retail, with the digital euro for everyday payments; wholesale, with solutions such as Pontes and Appia, which are Eurosystem initiatives to enable the settlement of "wholesale" financial transactions on blockchain in Central Bank money," argues Mocio, explaining that to date the use of stablecoins "remains mainly circumscribed to the crypto ecosystem: about 80% of transactions are attributable to the trading of 'crypto-assets', while other uses still remain marginal." Therefore, "growth will depend on extension beyond the 'crypto' ecosystem and competition with other forms of digital payment". The president of Assiom Forex, therefore believes "much more in a growth of the digital asset ecosystem based on a growing interaction between 'private systems' and central bank money-based systems".

"The profit for 2026 we prudently imagined the slight decline, this is because as you know we always make prudent plans that we then beat regularly, this has been the case for the past six years". This was stated by Iccrea's managing director, Mauro Pastore, on the sidelines of the 32nd Assiom Forex congress. "January and February," he added, "are going well, both from the point of view of credit, which is on the rise, and from the point of view of deposits". "The expectation," he further noted, "is that in 2026 interest rates will remain more or less flat, and therefore the growth in commission income should allow us to maintain margins. Pastore went on to say that he was 'very satisfied with the performance in 2025', with a profit 'in line with the previous year with a drop in net interest income of around 8.5%, partly offset by an increase in commissions from services and then also by cost containment and a reduction in the cost of risk'. "Patrimonially we have strengthened again," he added, "this will allow us to do further initiatives to support the territories also for the year 2026 and the following years, and therefore we are also positively oriented for the near future. Lastly, Pastore noted that the Iccrea group's 'presence in the territory' has 'more or less remained unchanged', consequently leading to an increase in market shares in the face of a reduction in competitors' networks: 'For example, only 7-8 years ago we as the Iccrea group had one branch in 10 of those that existed in Italia, today we have two in 10 or one in five'. "We believe that it is absolutely winning, not only possible but winning, a banking operation made with branches where advice is naturally given," he concluded.

European capital market and common actions on the energy front. This is the recipe of the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, against the "unresolved internal fragilities" of the Old Continent that "limit the Union's growth potential and risk reducing its role in the world economy". During his speech at the 32nd Assiom Forex congress, the Koch Palace number one spoke of the obstacles facing the EU today, starting with the "inadequacy of the Union's decision-making mechanisms". Panetta cited the example of the Next Generation Eu, with "this capacity to respond" that "must now become structural, not remain confined to emergencies", with the aim of "strengthening the Union's capacity to decide and act". This, in his view, is the 'fundamental condition' for 'completing the integration of the internal market', 'sustainably reducing foreign dependence and the cost of energy' and 'building a credible common defence capability'.

The European capital market is therefore "essential to exploit the huge savings available - today largely used outside the Union - and to attract international capital to be directed towards strategic investments and the strengthening of European competitiveness". Another issue is that of the 'energy sector', which 'represents an emblematic example of the advantages of joint action as opposed to fragmented action on a national basis'. In this area, he concludes, "joint action at European level is essential to strengthen bargaining power with suppliers, exploit economies of scale and make the management of storage and transmission networks more secure and functional, avoiding duplications and bottlenecks".

On the inflation front, 'in the presence of downside risks, monetary policy must maintain a flexible approach, anchored to the medium-term outlook and based on a comprehensive assessment of the data and implications for inflation and growth'. This was one of the messages launched by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, during his speech at the 32nd Assiom Forex congress, currently underway in Venice.

The number one at Palazzo Koch repeatedly emphasises the 'inflationary risks' that are 'significant in both directions'. On the one hand, in fact, energy markets "remain exposed to geopolitical tensions" and, therefore, "a persistent increase in the price of raw materials or a further fragmentation of global production chains, with a consequent increase in the costs of intermediate goods, could fuel upward pressures on inflation". But on the other hand, "a further appreciation of the euro, a sharp correction in financial markets or a tightening in credit supply conditions could keep price dynamics below target for a prolonged period".

Italia needs a new economic development model, 'a more innovative economy that places knowledge and human capital at the centre of its growth strategy'. This was stated by Bank of Italia Governor Fabio Panetta in his speech at the Assiom Forex financial operators' congress. The Governor stressed the importance of digital technologies "offer an opportunity that cannot be postponed: accelerating their diffusion must become a priority for Italia as for Europe". The country, says the Governor, in light of demographic trends can no longer count on 'a growth model based on expanding employment and low wages due to the inevitable decline in the working-age population. Without a decisive increase in productivity, development risks coming to a halt,' the Governor states.

Geopolitical tensions, the main risk factor for the global economy, widened in 2025, but global growth last year was more robust than expected thanks to a boost from investments in AI-related sectors. International trade despite US tariffs, 'not without surprise', continued to grow and, again, 'more than half of the expansion' can be attributed to the strong increase in AI-related trade. Thus the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, in his speech at the Assiom Forex financial operators' congress. According to Panetta, 'it is a sign of the adaptability of the global production system. It reflects - to a significant extent - the emergence of a new technological cycle driven by artificial intelligence, which fuels innovation, stimulates investment and supports trade'. AI, Panetta adds, will reasonably boost productivity even if questions remain about the impact it will have 'on employment, the evolution of inequalities and the concentration of economic power'.

"2025 has seen robust performance in the major financial markets. By contrast, 2026 looks like a much more complex year to decipher'. Thus, Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex, in his speech at the 32nd annual Congress of Financial Market Traders, currently taking place at the Palazzo del Casinò on the Venice Lido.

"The environment is characterised by ample liquidity and overall favourable financial conditions for households and businesses," adds Mocio, emphasising that, "despite persistent geopolitical tensions, markets have shown remarkable resilience and the global macroeconomic outlook remains positive". Inflation "remains close to the central banks' targets, thanks in part to the expected stability in the prices of the main energy sources," says Mocio, adding that "the process of normalising monetary policy appears to be at an advanced stage for both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. On the equities front, "the main indices have reached new all-time highs," points out the president of Assiom Forex, explaining that "European equities have benefited from a significant repricing in terms of multiples, but further appreciation in 2026 will depend, above all, on the confirmation of corporate earnings growth. In the US, 'momentum remains driven by the technology sector: valuations appear to be supported by solid profits and strong cash flows,' says Mocio, according to whom 'fears of possible speculative bubbles are, at the moment, at least premature'.

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Fears for the resilience of the AI sector, along with continuing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, will accompany markets in the coming months. However, stock exchanges will be able to withstand the shock and consolidate gains. This is the sentiment that prevails among Assiom Forex traders, interviewed in February 2026 in the usual monthly survey conducted by the association in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor. 49% of traders expect rising prices, compared to 43% of those interviewed in January. More specifically, 44% (up from 41%) indicate changes between +3% and +10%, while 5% (up from 2%) expect increases of over ten percentage points. Bets on a stability of the markets fell sharply (from 48% to 37%). Consequently, the share of those expecting a decline also rose: from 9% to 14%. Of these, 13% (up from 7%) indicate losses in the range of -3% to -10%, while 1% (up from 2%) expect indices to fall sharply by more than 10%. "Assiom Forex's February survey shows that the majority of respondents remain optimistic about equity markets, but uncertainties about the impact of artificial intelligence are increasing the dispersion of expectations," commented Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex.

"The results" of the government "are positive: the rating has increased and spending is under control. I believe that there are not easy conditions to govern public spending after the 110% law, which mortgaged public finances for many years'. This was said Enrico Marchi, president of Banca Finint, on the sidelines of the 32nd Assiom Forex congress underway in Venice.

Fears for the resilience of the AI sector, coupled with continuing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, will accompany markets in the coming months. However, stock exchanges will be able to withstand the shock and consolidate gains. This is the sentiment that prevails among Assiom Forex traders, interviewed in February in the customary monthly survey conducted by the association in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor.

49% of traders expect prices to rise, compared to 43% of respondents in January. More specifically, 44% (up from 41%) indicate changes between +3% and +10%, while 5% (up from 2%) expect increases of more than ten percentage points. Bets on a stability of the markets fell sharply (from 48% to 37%). Consequently, the share of those expecting a decline also rose: from 9% to 14%. Of these, 13% (up from 7%) indicate losses in the range of -3% to -10%, while 1% (up from 2%) expect indices to fall sharply by more than 10%. "Assiom Forex's February survey shows that the majority of respondents remain optimistic about equity markets, but uncertainties about the impact of artificial intelligence are increasing the dispersion of expectations," commented Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex.

On the occasion of the 32nd Annual Assiom Forex Congress, journalists from Agenzia Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor will follow the activities of Saturday 21 with articles and video interviews published on Notiziario Radiocor and on ilsole24ore.com, which will broadcast live streaming of the speech by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, scheduled for Saturday 21 February at 11.30 a.m.

In the afternoon, from 3 to 4 p.m., there will be a round table organised by Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor dedicated to Technological innovation, energy production and financial markets. The Editor-in-Chief of Il Sole 24 Ore, Radiocor and Radio 24, Fabio Tamburini, will moderate the speeches by Assiom Forex President Massimo Mocio and Banca Ifis Chief Executive Officer Frederik Geertman, along with contributions from guest speakers: Giuliano Noci, Pro-rector of the Politecnico di Milano; Marina Brogi, Full Professor of Economics of Financial Intermediaries at the University of Milan-Bicocca; Anna Gatti, Board Member of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group; and Renato Mazzoncini, CEO and General Manager of A2A. The spread of artificial intelligence, the expansion of digital assets and the increasing tokenization of financial instruments are reshaping the role of intermediaries and the very structure of markets. An evolution that opens up new opportunities in terms of operational efficiency, but also poses significant challenges in risk management, data security and infrastructure sustainability. The increase in demand for computational power makes it necessary to rethink the European energy mix and accelerate the development of a continental smart grid capable of supporting the digitalisation of financial flows. The impacts of these transformations on regulation and overall system resilience will also be at the centre of the debate.

Further reading

Mocio (Assiom Forex): banks need new skills, the challenge is artificial intelligence

20 February 2026