Brussels, the blown deal on appointments and the snub to Meloni

Before the dinner began, the three main political families - each represented by two leaders - met to consider what to do. Waiting in the Council Chamber for over two hours were the other leaders, including Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the two leaders who do not belong to any of the three main parties. Notes a diplomat present: 'Ms Meloni protested. She spoke of disrespect for the way the meeting was taking place'.

The decision to hold meetings on the sidelines, excluding the other national leaders, was dictated by the urgent desire of the Populars, Socialists and Liberals to recreate as soon as possible the coalition that has governed for the past five years. It is possible that the three parties also wanted to show in an obvious and ostensible way, for the benefit of their voters at home, that Giorgia Meloni belongs to a party outside the constitutional arc, as one would say in Italy.

It is too early to draw lessons from the affair. How can one fail to notice, however, the marginalisation of the premier in relation to the centrist leaders, merely because she sits on the right of the hemicycle? One has to wonder whether behind her disappointment on Monday evening there is not the fear of being bypassed to the left by the Greens in the possible enlargement of the next majority and not being able to participate in the Union government. One diplomat noted yesterday: 'Let us hope that the affaire does not provoke a radicalisation of Giorgia Meloni'.

Three names circulated insistently on the eve of yesterday's meeting: Mrs. von der Leyen and member of the People's Party for the presidency of the European Commission, former Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister António Costa for the presidency of the European Council, and current Estonian Liberal Prime Minister Kaja Kallas for the post of High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. In the three cases, doubts were raised by some political leaders.

There are those who, like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, have expressed concern about the possible future judicial problems of António Costa, whose chief of staff has problems with the justice system in Portugal. There are those like Slovak President Peter Pellegrini who seemed worried by Mrs Kallas' excessively anti-Russian tones. And those like Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán himself do not like President von der Leyen, and do not miss an opportunity to declare this publicly.

Beyond these doubts, yesterday after the dinner some leaders hinted that there is sufficient consensus in favour of Mrs von der Leyen (the decision is taken by the European Council by qualified majority). "I do not see any rumours that could call into question the name" of Ursula von der Leyen for a second term at the head of the European Commission, said Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. The politician spoke of a "positive debate".

In short, for many leaders yesterday's dinner was more an opportunity to test the climate after the vote earlier this month than to make a decision. Others, however, took the opportunity to sell their skins dearly. Two particular elements played a role. The term of office of the President of the European Council is two and a half years, so far always renewed. The EPP demanded to be able to obtain the post in the middle of the legislature to replace the eventual Socialist Costa. By doing so, the EPP made the climate worse.

The second element is a personal one. One wonders whether the well-known disagreements between Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen did not lead the former to put the brakes on last night's decision and a confirmation of the President of the European Commission. Speaking to the press he emphasised that he wanted to maintain the 'unity of the European Council' as far as possible. Explained one participant: 'Charles Michel's personal attitude played a role, but even more so did the demands of the popular groups'.

Every five years the leaders squabble over nominations for the next legislature. "I don't think we will now have a repeat of 2019, when there was a big lottery for three days. It won't be like that. Everything seems to be much clearer," said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Last night's meeting was informal, a positive outcome would still have to be confirmed by the next official summit, scheduled for 27-28 June, when hopefully decisions will be taken.