Diasorin downgraded to ‘sell’; UBS cites mounting competitive pressure

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Diasorin on the Milan Stock Exchange (FTSE MIB) following a downgrade by UBS analysts, who revised their recommendation from ‘neutral’ to ‘sell’ and lowered the target price to 55 euros per share from 66 euros. The diagnostics company’s share price has, however, maintained a year-to-date gain of around 7 per cent.

More specifically, according to analysts, the company’s expectations regarding the performance of its core immunodiagnostics business may have ‘overestimated the competitive landscape’. The group, in fact, expects this segment to continue to grow at a rate above the market average, as has been the case in recent years, but experts say they are ‘cautious’ due to ‘increasing competitive pressure (latent tuberculosis, Lyme disease) and difficulties in China’. The consensus estimates a revenue CAGR of around 5.5% through to 2030, whilst UBS analysts are more cautious, forecasting growth of 4% due to ‘competitive risks’. As for the molecular diagnostics market, the company anticipates a significant acceleration thanks to the new Liaison Nes platform: “Our market analysis,” the analysts continue, “suggests that Nes, whilst a niche product, should capture a very substantial share of growth to meet expectations.”

For these reasons, UBS forecasts revenue growth of 4 per cent at constant exchange rates for 2026 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.7 per cent, which is below the consensus (5% growth and a margin of 32.4%) and the company’s guidance. Over the medium term, they forecast a revenue CAGR of 5%, compared with the consensus estimate of around 6.5%, and a less favourable margin mix. Overall, UBS estimates EBIT to be 4% below the consensus this year, 6% below next year and 5–6% below in subsequent years.