Diasorin at 10-year lows after accounts below expectations and cut in estimates for 2026

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Fiscal year 2025 results below analysts' expectations and new forecasts indicating slower growth for fiscal year 2026 sink the stock of Diasorin at Piazza Affari. The share price of the company active in in vitro diagnostics, after failing to make a price in the early going, plunges to thelowest since December 2016, while the FTSE MIB also trades sharply lower.

In detail, Diasorin ended 2025 with growing revenues and ebitda, in line with the 2025 guidance: revenues stood at 1.195 million, +4% at constant exchange rates compared to 2024 and +1% at current exchange rates (due to negative exchange rate effect of 34 million), +5% excluding Covid; adjusted ebitda stood at 394 million, +4% at constant exchange rates compared to 2024, in line at current exchange rates (with a negative exchange rate effect of 15 million), with a revenue margin of 33%, both at current and constant exchange rates. Net profit was EUR 150 million, down 20% at current exchange rates, while adjusted net profit was EUR 223 million (19% as a percentage of revenue), down EUR 13 million (-6%) from 2024, as a result of "an unfavourable exchange rate effect, increased adjusted net financial expenses and higher taxes for the year".

The company revised its forecast for the current year, which now sees revenues growing between 5% and 6% at current exchange rates compared to a previously estimated high single digit, and an adjusted ebitda margin of 32%-33%. In addition, the company predicted a weak start to the year, with negative growth in the first quarter, and a recovery concentrated in the second half of the year: the weak start to the respiratory season and the normalisation of test volumes in Europe to pre-Covid levels are expected to weigh on first-half results. As for the new 32-33% margin forecast, it reflectsshort-term pressure from lower operating leverage, with improvement depending on second-half volumes and accelerated product launches. Specifically, Deutsche Bank analysts point out, fourth-quarter results were 3% below Bloomberg's consensus on revenue and adjusted ebitda, while the forecasts for 2026 are "clearly disappointing and very skewed towards the end of the year, with sales growth expected to be negative in the first quarter".

For Intermonte analysts, the visibility on medium-term profitability has weakened: the previous margin ambitions for the fiscal year 2027 (36-37%) are no longer considered realistic and new targets are pending. "The implementation of new platforms and hospital strategy in the US remain crucial," the experts note, "but results are subject to the adoption curve, competition and external headwinds (China, foreign exchange, US tariffs, macroeconomics). Consequently, the sim maintains a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of the new Capital Market Day conference on 20 May, which analysts consider the "key catalyst for the equity story". For this reason, Intermonte reduces the earning per share for the financial years 2026-2027 by 7-9% based on the new outlook, and cuts the price target to EUR 73 per share (from the previous EUR 82), confirming the 'Neutral' rating. The forthcoming Capital Market Day, the analysts write in a report, should provide more clarity, as the company is expected to present anew business plan with targets up to 2030. In the meantime, the stockbroker still points out, the new estimates are below the low end of the previous plan's growth ranges (high single-digit to low double-digit) and assume a profitability of 34% in the medium term (compared to the old business plan target of 36-37%). "For a genuine return of investor interest, we believe that the underlying trends will have to clearly show renewed acceleration," the experts explain.

Equita also cuts its estimates, now forecasting 2028 revenue down -2%, adjusted ebitda down -6%, and adjusted net profit down -10%, -9%, and -8%, respectively (with adjusted earning per share down -2% on average, including the EUR 250 million buyback). The experts are now slightly below guidance for 2026, and expect organic growth of +4.5% and adjusted ebitda margin of 32.3%. Equita also switches to a 'Hold' recommendation (from the previous 'Buy') and lowers the target price to EUR 70 per share (-25%), "reflecting the cut in estimates and a revision of the implied multiple" to 16 times adjusted price earning for 2026 (from 21 times), a discount of around 20% to French competitor BioMérieux. "The market focus will be on the weak start to the year," Equita points out, "which implies a significant acceleration of the top line to hit guidance. Experts estimate low single-digit growth in the first half of the year, with the first quarter declining to low single digits, and instead high single-digit growth in the second half of the year, at thelow end of guidance. The new estimates reflect management's indications of a slowdown in demand in Europe, a weak start in the US (also due to adverse weather conditions), an increasing dependence on the 2026 respiratory season for the success of new products, and potential cost pressure.