EU vote on Von der Leyen: what will Italian parliamentarians do? Here are the scenarios

This is it. On Thursday 18 July in Strasbourg, the Europarliament will decide whether or not to confirm the mandate of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission. An appointment to which the Italian parliamentarians present themselves divided not only between majority and opposition but also internally. Using a yardstick familiar among ticket-book aficionados, it is a 1-x-2 match.

In the majority Forza Italia, which is part of the PPE, i.e. von der Leyen's party that indicated her spitzkandidaten, will certainly vote yes, as the leader of Forza Italia and vice-premier Antonio Tajani has said and repeated. The League of Matteo Salvini will just as certainly vote no, as will the entire Patriots group founded by the Hungarian premier Viktor Orban and where almost all the extreme right-wing parties from Rassemblement to Republication have relocated. right-wing parties from Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National to the Austrian Fpo whose common denominator is the fight against immigration and a more benevolent attitude towards Vladimir Putin.

As for the Fratelli d'Italia of Giorgia Meloni at the moment the abstention seems to prevail, which counts as a vote against. Negotiations between the prime minister and von der Leyen are underway to ensure Italy - Meloni has repeatedly said - "the Commissioner it deserves" and that is an economic portfolio (Budget, Competition, Single Market) together with an executive vice-presidency. This is the objective. But there is something else too. And it is the political positioning of the leader of Fdi and president of the Ecr, the Conservative group that has been overtaken by the Patriots and at home has to guard against the friendly fire of the League but at the same time cannot afford to lose the credibility built up in Europe over the past two years. It is the crossroads that many are talking about these days, tugging it a little here and a little there.

However, the opposition is equally divided. The Pd, which is part of the Pse, the European Socialists, will declare a vote in favour of von der Leyen while its ally, Giuseppe Conte's 5 Star Movement seems inclined to vote 'no' like the rest of the Left group, The Left, where he has just joined. As for Action and Live Italy, their support for the outgoing president is only verbal since, having failed to reach the threshold, they are left out of the Europarliament.

Fragmentation certainly does not help, but it is inevitable. The construction of the consensus around von der Leyen should in fact be read as a jigsaw puzzle in which the disappearance or shifting of a tile reflects on the whole picture. To be clearer: should Meloni decide to openly support the outgoing president's encore, it would immediately reflect on the positioning of the other parties. The PD and in general the socialists have said several times that they consider an enlargement of the majority to the right, to Fdi, impracticable. Forza Italia, on the other hand, has made it known that its 'yes' vote would be at risk in the event of an opening towards the Greens. And Meloni in turn has contested from the outset the re-proposition of a majority that 'does not take into account the result of 9 June'. It is in this mare magnum of crossed vetoes that von der Leyen navigates, meeting with the various groups, the delegations of the individual parties, assuring attention to the issues that each one places at the top of its priorities. On paper she has 400 votes. All she needs to be elected is 361. But the vote is secret and franchi tiratories abound. That is why she is also looking for lifeboats outside the majority. On Thursday 18 we will know whether she made it to port or was sunk.