European elections 2024, the flows: the PD grows by taking votes from M5s and Action-Iv, the League gives up a point to Fdi, Fi takes voters away from Renzi-Calenda
The SWG snapshot: less than half of M5s voters in the 2022 politics confirmed their choice in the 2024 European elections, more than a third stayed at home
by Andrea Carli
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Key points
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It is a bit like the logic of the communicating vessels experiment applied to politics. Voters of one party in the next election round decide to give their vote to another political force. It is the dynamic of 'flows'. In the European elections that took place on 8 and 9 June Forza Italia-Noi moderati registered 9.6 per cent of the consensus, up from 9 per cent in the 2022 general election. If one scrolls between the lines of the special Radar with the voting flows of SWG, one element leaps to the eye: the formation led by vice-premier Antonio Tajani also registered consensus from Action-IV. In particular, 6 per cent of that 27 per cent of votes from other political areas in the previous electoral round had aimed precisely at the Renzi-Calenda duo and the project, which later fell through, of the Third pole.
But the two centrists have also contributed to giving fuel to the Pd engine: according to the SWG survey, in fact, despite a negative balance in the exchange with AVS (Green and Left Alliance), the Dems increased their vote baggage by subtracting consensus from M5S and Action-IV. The PD went from 19% in the 2022 Politics to 24.1% in the 2024 European elections. Looking at the composition of the Dem electorate in the last round of elections, of the 31% of consensus coming from other political areas, 5% voted Action-IV, 9% voted Five Star, 6% voted for other lists and 11% abstained.
Fdi still drains some votes to Lega and Forza Italia
The SWG survey also outlines other insights. With regard to Fratelli d'Italia, for example, the document explains that the party led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni maintains a large part of the consensus of 2022 and drains some votes to Lega (8%) and Forza Italia-Noi moderati (8%).
The League cedes almost a point to Fdi
.The League, which went from 8.8% in the 2022 Politics to 9% in the 2024 European elections, gave up almost a point to Fdi but recovered from abstention and minor lists.
M5s: less than half of the Five Star voters of the 2022 policies confirmed their choice
.As for M5s, which went from 15.4% in the 2022 Politics to 10% in the 2024 Europeans, less than half of the voters in the 2022 Politics confirmed their choice in the 2024 Europeans, more than a third stayed at home. In detail: 40% of the 2022 M5s electorate confirmed their vote for the Five Stars; 13% voted for a centre-left party, 6% for a centre-right party and 41% voted for another party or did not vote.
