Fincantieri falls in the stock market, analysts limit target price after 10% capital placing

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Fincantieri fell on the stock market after the placement reserved for institutional investors through Abb a 10% stake at €15.32 per share, a discount of around 7% compared to the close on the eve of the trading (€16.47). Demand - as we understand it - amounted tofive times the shares being placed. After the transaction, the free float increased by about 34%, reaching 36% of the capital, while the group's first shareholder Cdp Equity diluted from 70.67% to 64.25%, maintaining control. The company cited the strengthening of financial flexibility, support for increased production capacity and inorganic growth, and the anticipation of the deleveraging path as the objective of the deal, while analysts mainly emphasised the increase in the free float and the broadening of the institutional investor base.

According to experts at Intermonte, 'the transaction is difficult to reconcile with the 2026-30 plan presented a week ago, which envisages 1.9 billion capex fully self-financed by cash generation, about 3 billion in cumulative ebitda-capex generation and 2.4 billion in cumulative operating cash flow, with leverage declining towards about 1 times 2030 and the introduction of a dividend from 2028'. In this context, Intermonte (outperform with a target price of EUR 23) believes 'that the use of an equity increase was not necessary for the industrial execution of the plan. We therefore think that the main rationale for the transaction is to increase the free float and broaden the institutional base, rather than a financial requirement'. The increase in the number of shares implies an estimated cut in earnings per share over the next few years in the order of about 10 per cent, according to Intermonte. "Theindustrial targets remain unchanged," say the analysts, "but at this point the focus is now even more on the conversion of the EUR 5bn defence pipeline in the short term. Consequently, the absence of tangible orders in the coming months would put pressure on the credibility of the plan as announced last week'. Equita updates targets downstream of the capital increase and estimates a dilutive impact on eps adj of around 5% for 2027/28. The target price is at EUR 18.1 per share (-3%).

Banka Akros for its part believes that the Abb proceeds will be used tofinance the capacity expansion plan set out in the 2026-30 business plan, likely due to the solid near-term pipeline in shipbuilding. "For now," they write, "we only include Abb's proceeds in our previous net debt estimates, leaving other assumptions regarding the income statement and capital expenditure largely unchanged. Revised target price to €18.7 from €19, confirmed buy.