In Mauritania, the final stretch of the gas pipeline between Nigeria and Morocco

NAIROBI – The latest summit in Sierra Leone of ECOWAS, the bloc of West African economies, concluded with a number of announcements. One of the most significant concerned the present and future of the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, the nearly 7,000-kilometre pipeline intended to link Nigeria, Morocco and EU markets. In the immediate term, the heads of state and government of the bloc’s member countries have given the green light to a project that will wind its way through 11 countries in the region. Looking ahead, ECOWAS’s endorsement has set another milestone on the infrastructure agenda: the signing of an agreement between Morocco and Mauritania, the final physical transit stage of the pipeline before it reaches the port of Tangier.

Mauritania has already given its approval to the project, which is set to transport 30 billion cubic metres of gas, half of which will be supplied to both the Moroccan and European markets. Now, the ‘imminent’ signing of the agreement further formalises its role and opens up new horizons in terms of both economic expansion and its security posture. In recent years, Nouakchott has realised it sits on a wealth of fossil and renewable resources, capitalised upon through multi-billion initiatives such as the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) on the maritime border with Senegal, or the $34 billion agreement to develop its green hydrogen supply chain alongside partners from the United Arab Emirates, Germany and Egypt.

The link with the Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline could further strengthen integration along the axis connecting African and European markets, as well as its role as a diplomatic and commercial bridge between West Africa and the Maghreb region, bolstering growth projected by the African Development Bank at +4.4 per cent in 2026 and 4.7 per cent in 2027. On the security front, Mauritania has for years enjoyed a reputation as an anchor of stability in one of the most troubled regions in Africa and globally: the Sahel, held hostage by a jihadist insurgency that has transformed it into the global epicentre of terrorism and attracted a growing number of external actors seeking alliances with local governments, ranging from Russia to – most recently – Donald Trump’s return to dialogue with the US. Mauritania fears the repercussions of the so-called ‘spillover effect’ – the risk of violence spreading, which has already materialised in the form of incursions by Al-Qaeda-linked groups or by the Malian security forces and the Africa Corps themselves.

But for now, “the risk of a severe outbreak is considered to be limited”, explains Héni Nsaibia of the ACLED research centre. The balance, says Nsaibia, is ensured by the ‘multidimensional strategy’ devised by Nouakchott, combining dialogue, demobilisation, the strengthening of military capabilities in collaboration with Western partners, and a focus on cross-border security. All this against the backdrop of a ‘non-aggression’ tactic that is still bearing fruit today: ‘Since 2011,’ says Nsaibia, ‘the country has not proactively engaged in military operations nor has it pursued militants affiliated with Al-Qaeda, thereby helping to avoid becoming a target for retaliation by the militants.’