Inflation rises again in October: 5.4 per cent. A record high since August 2023

In October 2026, inflation rises to +5.4% (from +4.2% in September) year-on-year, returning to the level recorded in August 2023. Meanwhile, the month-on-month figure stands at +0.9 per cent. This was announced by Istat in its preliminary estimate (the final figure will be released on 17 November). Analysts had indeed forecast an increase (+4.7 per cent) but not to this extent. The acceleration in inflation is mainly driven by the rise in prices of energy goods (from +22.6% to +31.4%), which continues to be influenced by the international geopolitical situation. However, in a country where goods are mainly transported by road, price rises are now beginning to spread to other sectors as well: the food sector is also contributing to inflation, particularly the unprocessed food component (from +5.5% to +7.5%), as are certain types of services, notably those related to transport (from +1.6% to +3.1%).

The so-called “shopping basket” (i.e. food, household and personal care goods, but excluding fuel) is rising faster (from +1.5% to +2.5%), as is the index for frequently purchased goods (which, however, includes fuel): from +5.2% to +5.8%. Core inflation (excluding the most volatile components, namely energy and fresh food) is expected to reach +2.0% (up from +1.6%).

The implied inflation rate for October, for 2026 – that is, the rate that would result if the index remained unchanged for the rest of the year – stands at +3.4 per cent. This has comfortably surpassed the recent estimate made in mid-October by the IMF (3.3%) for the total figure for 2026.

Prices of goods mainly reflect price pressures in the energy sector (from +22.6% to +31.4%; +5.9% compared with September), affecting both components. For regulated energy products (from +25.8% to +59.5%; +18.8% compared with September), prices are rising more rapidly for both town gas and natural gas in the protected market (from +47.0% to +56.8%; +5.5 per cent compared with September) and those of electricity in the protected market (from +9.7 per cent to +60.2 per cent; +34.1 per cent compared with September). As regards unregulated energy products (from +22.5 per cent to +29.4 per cent; +4.9 per cent compared with September), the acceleration in price growth is widespread and particularly marked for town gas and natural gas in the liberalised market (from +16.7 per cent to +35.7 per cent; +16.0 per cent compared with September), electricity on the open market (from +22.8 per cent to +32.0 per cent; +5.5 per cent compared with September), heating oil (from +38.5 per cent to +45.6 per cent; +4.8 per cent compared with September) and transport diesel (from +34.9 per cent to +37.7 per cent; +1.6 per cent compared with September); only the prices of petrol showed a slight slowdown in growth (from +21.8% to +19.4%; -2.5% compared with September). This was influenced by price cap set by some companies until the end of December.

In the food sector, the rate of price growth is rising (from +1.7% to +2.7%; +1.0% compared with September), mainly due to the significant acceleration in prices for unprocessed food (from +5.5% to +7.5%; +1.8 per cent compared with September), driven by price rises for Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (from +8.5 per cent to +12.7 per cent; +3.1 per cent compared with September) and of fruit and nuts (from +0.5 per cent to +4.3 per cent; +3.4 per cent compared with September). For processed food, prices showed a moderation in the year-on-year decline and an increase in month-on-month terms (from -0.6% to -0.2%; +0.5% compared with September).