The Shia challenge

An isolated Iran is striving for industrial independence. The secret lies in a nano-coating

New technologies in the turbine sector and the metallurgical industry. Tehran’s aim is to reduce its reliance on foreign sources. Financial networks and export controls are at stake, and the challenge for Europe and America is to anticipate these changes before the ecosystem becomes operational

Pasdaran in rassegna a Teheran (Reuters)

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Iran’s announcement of a nano-coating which, according to Tehran, is capable of extending the service life of turbine blades from 133 to 2,000 hours may appear to be merely a piece of engineering news and may not arouse any profound geopolitical interest. But this is not the case. Rather, it is a sign that, through scientific research into advanced materials, the Islamic Republic is aiming for industrial independence and to minimise imports. The figures cited by Tehran — a hardness exceeding 2,000 Vickers (the Vickers scale is used to measure a material’s resistance to penetration by an object), over 700 hours of salt spray resistance and an increase in the productivity of aluminium moulds from 300 to 3,200 kilograms — do not, however, currently have any independently verified data that is publicly available. The strategic significance, after all, lies not so much in a single blade as in the supply chain required to produce it.

Energy is the top priority

According to the US Energy Information Administration, natural gas powers around 85 per cent of Iran’s electricity generation. Turbines, compressors, pumps and treatment plants are therefore essential infrastructure. Wear and tear on the blades reduces efficiency, increases fuel consumption and necessitates maintenance which, under sanctions, may require components that are difficult and expensive to source. Iran also operates in an environment characterised by sand and fine particulates. An erosion-resistant coating could therefore be used in power stations, refineries, petrochemical plants and compressor stations. It would not solve problems relating to fuel, the grid or installed capacity, but it would reduce a specific industrial vulnerability. The economic impact would be cumulative: fewer shutdowns, greater plant availability, reduced demand for foreign currency and less dependence on Western suppliers. Technology thus becomes a tool of energy policy: it does not increase Iran’s reserves, but it makes the infrastructure that converts them into electricity and industrial output more resilient.

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The commitment to revitalising the supply chain

The vacuum deposition of materials containing titanium and cobalt requires process chambers, pumps, arc or electron beam sources, power supplies, gas control systems, metal targets, surface preparation, and instruments for spectrometry, microscopy and non-destructive testing. It is this architecture that should be of interest to economic intelligence, rather than the search for a single ‘prohibited’ component. Each item may have a civilian use; its significance becomes apparent when seemingly separate purchases converge on the same user, intermediary or programme. On 28 April 2026, the US Treasury Department identified 35 individuals and entities accused of running parts of Iran’s shadow banking network. According to Washington, these structures have channelled tens of billions of dollars to finance oil trade, purchases of sensitive components and activities linked to the armed forces. Since February 2025, the Office of Foreign Assets Control has sanctioned around a thousand individuals, companies, ships and aircraft linked to Iran. Networks of shell companies and intermediaries abroad can obscure the identity of the originator, payer, freight forwarder, declared consignee and end-user. To understand just how far Iranian technology has actually advanced, it is therefore necessary to track not only patents and publications, but also machinery, consumables, payments, personnel and measuring instruments.

From industry to aerospace

The second strategic level is aerospace, although the transition is not automatic. An industrial blade, a mould and a propulsion component are subject to different requirements. Aerospace requires a whole range of additional engineering safety conditions to be met, such as coating uniformity, porosity control and resistance to oxidation. The indicators to watch are therefore concrete: the handling of complex aerodynamic geometries, the acquisition of thermal testing systems, the transfer of researchers to defence-related companies, contracts with manufacturers of drones or propulsion systems, the construction of larger deposition chambers, and repeated purchases of high-purity targets. Over the next five years, it is more realistic to envisage an Iran capable of using sufficiently reliable coatings for tools, repairs, land-based engines, compressors and non-critical components, rather than one that immediately meets the standards of leading Western manufacturers. However, even partial progress can reduce the logistical burden and increase the availability of platforms built under embargo.

The nuclear issue

A nanocoating applied to a blade does not, in itself, constitute evidence of weapons production: the nuclear significance is therefore indirect, not least because such applications can be used in other sectors of industry. However, it is the geopolitical context surrounding Iran that makes these ambiguities all the more sensitive. In a report dated 3 September 2025, the IAEA analysed the effects of the attacks on 21–22 June against Iran’s two main uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz, the fuel conversion and fabrication facilities, the Khondab reactor project and the workshops for centrifuge components. Prior to the attacks, the three declared facilities housed over 20,000 centrifuges, and as of 13 June 2025, the IAEA also estimated a total of 9,874.9 kilograms of enriched uranium. Following the withdrawal of inspectors and the entry into force of the Iranian law of 2 July suspending cooperation, the Agency stated that it could no longer determine the quantity and location of stocks with the same level of precision as before. The flow of information regarding centrifuges, rotors, bellows, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate has also been lost. International alarm would be raised if more specific evidence were to converge: orders from nuclear users, purity requirements incompatible with ordinary industry, the transfer of machinery or personnel to reconstruction sites, and the IAEA’s persistent inability to reconcile materials and infrastructure. Without this convergence, automatically linking the nanocoating to the nuclear programme would be an analytical gamble.

European sanctions

Meanwhile, on 28 August 2025 France, Germany and the United Kingdom triggered the snapback mechanism provided for in UN Resolution 2231. This is the mechanism that automatically reinstates all the sanctions that the UN had imposed on Tehran, which had subsequently been lifted under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. After thirty days had passed without an agreement, on 28 September six Security Council resolutions came back into force, reinstating restrictions on proliferation, sensitive transfers, finance and armaments. On 30 September, London also imposed sanctions on 71 individuals and entities linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. The issue of coatings fits into this context not because all surface treatment technologies should be banned, but because European Regulation 2021/821 subjects the export, transit, brokering and technical assistance relating to numerous dual-use goods to controls. The difficulty lies in identifying industrial systems comprising goods which, when considered individually, may appear harmless.

The risk to Europe

All this has implications for Europe: as they face different challenges depending on the circumstances, Italia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom must join forces. For Italia, for example, the issue is industrial rather than diplomatic. The country has an extensive network of companies specialising in valves, pumps, machine tools, automation, metallurgy, technical ceramics, surface treatments and energy maintenance. The potential vulnerability lies in the fact that a small business may fail to recognise the strategic significance of a component within a wider supply chain. The response should therefore involve the Ministry of Foreign Affairs liaising with various regulatory bodies that oversee the export of products. Conversely, the other European players have complementary levers at their disposal. Whilst Germany is exposed in the fields of high-precision machinery and automation, London holds the financial, insurance and maritime levers. And Paris, which holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, has nuclear deterrence and an advanced industrial base in the energy and aerospace sectors to its credit. In the coming years, the most likely scenario is one in which Iran is able to achieve selective capabilities in coatings for the energy, petrochemical and manufacturing sectors – probably on a smaller scale than the figures currently reported, but sufficient to reduce maintenance costs and imports. A second scenario envisages expansion into aerospace repairs and military production. The third scenario, less likely but more serious, would focus on nuclear technology. If Europe merely monitors product lists, it risks being too late. If, on the other hand, it is able to analyse the relationships between people, machinery, payments and end-users, it will be better placed to distinguish between economic resilience, military build-up and proliferation.

Charlye Ghezzi is a geopolitical analyst and specialist in technology and government security

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