Referendum on justice: here's what the latest polls say less than a month before the vote

The constitutional referendum on justice on the separation of careers is approaching (voting will take place on 22 and 23 March) and the polls continue to come out copiously. While the majority of the surveys continue to give the yes vote an advantage, there are more surveys (compared to a month ago) that give the no vote an advantage. The surveys, however, vary greatly depending on the sample used, the type of question and the percentage of undecided considered. One aspect, however, continues to emerge with near certainty: the higher the turnout, the more likely it is that the yes vote will win. Here are the latest findings.

The BiDiMedia survey forFirst, carried out from 23 to 24 February (published on 27 February) on 2,000 respondents, hypothesises three scenarios. The first with a following turnout at 47%: in this case, when asked "If you voted tomorrow for the Referendum on Justice, who would you vote for?" the yes vote would win with 51.5% against 48.5%. With a 44% turnout the yeses would be at 51% while with a 51% turnout they would be at 52.5%.

The Lab21 survey, for affaritaliani.it, carried out between 13 and 21 February on 1,021 valid and complete interviews, to the question "on 22 and 23 March 2026 voting will take place for the referendum on justice, will you vote yes or no?", among those who say they will go to vote (with an estimated turnout of 59.3%), yes is at 63.2% against 36.8% no.

The survey by Tecnè for Rti (carried out between 17 and 19 February on 2,012 respondents), to the question "If you voted today for the referendum on justice reform, how would you vote?", among those who indicated that they would vote (43%), the yes vote was between 54 and 56% while the no vote was between 46 and 44%

The survey by Demopolis for Otto e Mezzo La7, carried out between 18 and 19 February on 2,000 complete interviews, to the question "If you were to go to the polls tomorrow for the referendum confirming the Justice Reform, you would vote:" the yes vote is 40%, against 41% of no voters and 19% undecided (with 42% of voters saying they would go to the polls)