Airlines

The black year for aircraft: expected losses of USD 148 billion

According to BofA analysts more serious impacts of the Covid crisis. 20% increases in airline tickets to offset costs

by Mara Monti

7 April 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

A crisis more serious than the pandemic
Tickets increased by 20% to compensate costs
The unknown demand for travel
Low cost airlines increase flights to Italia

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Flight cancellations, capacity reductions, higher fares and the introduction of fuel surcharges to partially mitigate rising fuel costs, right up to the latest worst nightmare: fuel rationing that could jeopardise summer flights, the most important season for airlines.

A crisis more serious than the pandemic

It is the new black swan facing the air transport sector after the Covid crisis that left thousands of aircraft grounded and took years to recover. Faced with this new crisis, with the danger of fuel rationing being added as a new crazy variable, the impacts could be even more severe than those already experienced during the pandemic.

The first estimates on airline balance sheets are beginning to circulate among the investment banks, and the sign is opposite to the forecasts made at the beginning of the year. "We are already seeing the first signs of trouble," say the analysts of Bank of America in their latest report on the sector, "Jet fuel and profitability risks": with all due caution, the analysts put it in black and white that this year's global loss could touch USD 148 billion: "For comparison, the worst annual loss recorded in the 25 years since IATA has monitored the sector was USD 111 billion in 2020," precisely the year of Covid.

This was not the premise with which Iata, the airline association, had opened the year forecasting an operating profit for 2026 at USD 72.8 billion, based on aviation fuel prices of USD 88 per barrel and passenger growth of 4.9 per cent. It is a pity that in the meantime the price of fuel per barrel has risen more than 100 per cent to $150-200 per barrel surpassing that of oil due to the conflict in the Middle East that closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Guerra in Iran, l’impatto sulle economie asiatiche

Tickets up 20% to offset costs

"The longer the crisis persists, the more difficult it becomes for airlines to absorb high costs without wider repercussions on demand, capacity and profitability," the analysts write. They go so far as to say that "the industry would have to raise prices by around 20 per cent to bring EBIT back to breakeven if fuel prices remained at twice 2025 levels".

A scenario that would hardly improve even if the conflict in the Middle East were to end tomorrow, because the consequences would be long-term, a much more complicated challenge than the Covid crisis.

Commerzbank's analysts are explicit: 'In our base case scenario, in which we assume that the war ends in late spring and therefore expect prices to fall again, diesel and aviation fuel prices would still be significantly higher at the end of the year than before the start of the war'.

IL PREZZO DEL CARBURANTE PER AEREI SCHIZZA ALLE STELLE

L’aumento del prezzo del carburante per aerei ha superato gli incrementi del prezzo del petrolio dall’inizio della guerra con l’Iran

The unknown demand for travel

It was a change of perspective that forced companies to revise their plans for the current year after having closed 2025 on a record high for the sector with traffic that had rebounded 9% more than the pandemic, despite problems with aircraft delivery.

Now the increases in ticket prices needed to compensate for the cost of fuel could have an impact on the availability of consumers who have to deal with rising bills and decide to cut back on discretionary spending, limiting the growth of air travel.

La proroga dello sconto sulle accise, la povertà e le assunzioni nella sanità

Low cost airlines increase flights to Italia

To defend themselves against this tidal wave, in addition to increasing ticket prices, airlines have another weapon in the form of reducing flights and shifting capacity from one country to another. According to Ubs analysts, low-cost companies such as easyJet and Ryanair are shifting capacity to Italia, Spain and the UK for the summer, while Wizz Air, the most exposed of the low-costs to the Middle East, is cutting flights to this area, moving to Europe. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, on the other hand, after reducing capacity to the Middle East, are now reducing capacity to domestic flights and to Asia, leaving those to the US unchanged.

Hypothesis rationing for kerosene

The crisis initially focused mainly on rising costs and then shifted to fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of jet fuel passes, is not reopened. At this point, fuel rationing is a possibility, as European energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen mentioned in an interview with the FT. The Gulf region is not only a major producer of crude oil and natural gas, but also a supplier of refined petroleum products, including middle distillates such as jet fuel since in Europe the refining capacity of jet paraffin has declined.

The International Energy Agency itself had pointed out that global markets for middle distillates were already strained compared to other refined products, with limited spare refining capacity outside the region to compensate for a prolonged supply disruption. And this crisis is proving it.