Land values

Land, prices beat inflation but 1.5 million hectares remain uncultivated

Crea report: for the first time in 20 years, average price growth, albeit modest, exceeds the cost of living. Biogas and agri-voltaic driven sales rise by 4%

by Alessio Romeo

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The interest of investment funds and the new green energy business (biogas and agri-voltaic) are pushing up farmland prices in Italy, which for the first time in twenty years are beating inflation, with a trend reversal set to be confirmed. These are, in a nutshell, the main news emerging from the CRE 2025 Report on Land Market Trends, now in its 75th edition and a unique reference point for investigating trends in agricultural land prices, measured in absolute 'naked' values, i.e. without taking into account the added value given by overlying crops.

After twenty years better than inflation

Last year, the increase in the price of land exceeded national inflation by about 0.2 per cent and was therefore around one per cent: a figure that may seem modest, but is instead significant in the quotations of what has historically been a safe haven asset not subject to sudden fluctuations; also because it is the result of an average between areas with very different quotations and trends.

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The average value is 22,400 euro per hectare: it ranges from 47,100 euro paid in the North-East, to around 35,200 euro in the North-West - where the greatest increase in prices is recorded (+2.3%) - to decidedly lower values in the Centre-South and the Islands, below 16 thousand euro and 9 thousand euro respectively. The number of purchases and sales also increased by 4%, with peaks of 9% in the regions of the Centre.

Top Vineyards and Apple Orchards

The 'bare' figures, then, conceal enormous differences between the various areas of the country, where next to a pasture or a forest of little value, a hectare hosting DOC vineyards can reach values in the millions. The peak is in the Langhe with 2.3 million per hectare for Barolo vineyards. But apple orchards in the Trentino region of Val Venosta also cost between 450 thousand and 750 thousand euro per hectare; quotations of 500 thousand euro also in the Albenga plain for land used for horticulture.

More generally, the difference in value is due not only to the greater presence in the North of land in flat and irrigated areas, but also to the higher rate of urbanisation and the related consumption of agricultural land, which reduces the supply of land, often insufficient to meet demand. On the contrary, in inland and mountainous areas the supply of land by elderly farmers and farms in economic difficulties prevails, which is often not matched by the market. A key issue remains the difficulty of access to land, especially for young farmers, with increasing recourse to rents. There is then the chapter of uncultivated land, one and a half million hectares, with Italian farmers being among the oldest in Europe.

Hard access for young people

"We must work to facilitate young people's access to land," said CREA president Andrea Rocchi, "but also help them subsequently to produce income by developing innovative companies. "Land," recalled Roberta Sardone of the Centre for Policy and the Bioeconomy, "is still the main production factor and for this reason eliminating the barriers to land reorganisation is necessary to increase the sustainability and competitiveness of the entire agrifood system. It is no coincidence that the EU Commission has called for the creation of a European observatory to monitor developments in the land market.

Despite low growth rates, in fact, 'prices are rising and demand is outstripping supply. Land is not a high-yield investment, it is low-risk, it is safe, and it is a safe haven asset,' said report author Andrea Arzeni. 'But while investment has been eroded by inflation in recent years, this trend is expected to continue in the coming years. The main trend in recent years is the increased use of rent in the face of market volatility and difficulties in accessing land with values disconnected from yield. What emerges as the main novelty is the interest of foreign funds in certain areas such as the iconic landscapes of Piedmont and Tuscany for non-agricultural but 'status' purposes, and this is a problem that puts farmers out of business'.

The energy variable

"The growth in energy use is also a problem for agriculture," added Arzeni. Polarisation is on the rise: the growth of 1% is an average between very differentiated situations, while climate change is beginning to make its effects felt, which may jeopardise the value of the land".

Crea has been involved in a Mef group for the valuation of public land, as the only body with this wealth of data. The future is georeferenced data and maps, big data and archives of purchases and sales, which are more difficult to process but with the help of artificial intelligence can improve the accuracy and reliability of monitoring. The sentiment for the coming years remains positive despite the unknowns represented by the effects of the climate crisis on the profitability of agricultural production and the possible further downsizing of European funding.

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