French legislative elections: new alliances on the right threaten Macron

Rn - not yet allied with the Gaullists, credited alone with 9% - is polled at 34% (35% Ifop Fiducial), corresponding - but the double-round electoral system makes the outcome very uncertain - to 235-265 deputies, less than the 298 needed for a majority, perhaps attainable, assuming the sum makes sense, with the 40-55 of the Républicains.

Rn, on the other hand, ruled out an agreement with Reconquete, Eric Zemmour's party: the European chief executive, Marion Maréchal (née Le Pen and niece of Marine) had immediately met her aunt and the prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella, in a move that did not please her party leader. On Tuesday afternoon, Maréchal announced a 'change of position' by Jordan Bardella, who would reject 'the very principle of an agreement': 'They did not want any direct or indirect association with Eric Zemmour'. This is probably the last step of dédiabolisation: Reconquete is, unlike Rn, identitarian but pragmatic, postmodern, an ideological party. 'Zemmour's invective and really excessive positions have made the conditions for an agreement fall apart,' said Bardella.

Second in line, before the Macronians, is the electoral cartel of the left, to which the Harris Interactive survey attributes 22% (25% the Ifop Fiducial survey), plus 9% of other left-wing parties that could converge in a Nouveau Front Populaire for a total of 115-145 seats. The Socialists, Greens, Communists and Insoumis - Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party - have also decided to present a single candidate in the constituencies, in imitation of what happened in the 2022 legislative and presidential elections. It is not the same alliance as two years ago, the Nupes: the Europeans have changed the balance of power and today the alliance between the Parti Socialiste (PS) and the Place Publique group of Raphaël Glucksmann, newly elected MEP (and, his supporters fear, already 'dumped' by the PS...), is the strongest of the partners, while France Insoumise has lost ground.

Many French intellectuals, including Nobel Prize winner for economics Esther Duflo, and Nobel Prize winner for literature Annie Ernaux, have signed an appeal for a union of the left to face 'the disasters of our time'. It is unclear at the moment who the prime ministerial candidate might be, but the Socialists have called for a step back from Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Macron has few moves left. On Monday evening, he summoned the leaders of his coalition and obtained, above all, the support of Édouard Philippe, former prime minister, mayor of Le Havre, and still very popular among the French (he is one of the possible candidates for the presidency in 2027): he will not run, but invited 'all the political forces that belong to the central bloc', hence Républicains and Socialists, to create 'a new majority'.

"I run to win," the president said in an interview with Le Figaro. "Politics is a dynamic. I have never believed in polls. The decision I made opens a new era. A new campaign begins and one should not look at the results by constituency in the light of those of the European elections," he added.Macron ruled out his resignation, whatever the result of the vote. "The institutions are clear, the role of the president, whatever the result, is also clear. For me, it is an intangible value,' he said.
"Politics is a dynamic. I have never believed in polls. The decision I have made opens a new era. A new campaign begins and we must not look at the results by constituency in the light of those of the European elections,' he added. However, the news of the Rn-Lr pact has upset his plans and the press conference called for 11 June has been postponed to the following day, Wednesday.

Criticism of the president is becoming very bitter, even among his own deputies, taken by surprise by the decision to dissolve the Assemblée. In addition to a number of necessary but unpopular political choices, such as the pension reform, imposed 'from above' without a parliamentary vote or announced during the election campaign, the president is being reproached for having first cleared the Lepenians' vote during the debate on the immigration law, a key theme of the election campaign and right-wing propaganda, passed with the support of Rassemblement national. The justification - the measure would have passed anyway if Rn had abstained (but not if it had voted against) - appeared very weak.

The Macronian camp was particularly impressed by the coalitions being formed. "Do you want to throw the Republican Right, its elected representatives, its militants into disgrace?" asked Éric Ciotti on X, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, who opened the door to the Gaullists in disagreement with the president.
It is an 'unworthy' agreement, the one forming on the left, said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, so far silent despite his great efforts during the election campaign: the voters, he added, will be faced with a 'choice of society', between 'those who respect the rules, the people, those who have achieved unprecedented economic results and financial and social chaos'. "All parties talk about them and intrigue, we have to talk about the French, that is our difference," he concluded. The polls, for now, prove him wrong and give a glimpse of the Macronian group, which wanted to disentangle right and left, squeezed between the two poles.

Macron probably wants to play with the Rassemblement nationale as François Mitterrand did with Jacques Chirac between 1986 and 1988. First of all, he wants to show that Rn has no programme to govern: 'There was no programme! - he said about Bardella's election campaign - The only proposal that was brought forward was that of the double border (French and European, against immigration, ndr), which its very promoter was incapable of explaining!'

Should the Macronians lose the elections, it would instead be a matter of showing that the Lepenians are incapable of governing, as did Mitterrand, who exercised all his powers to put Chirac in trouble. In 1988, however, the Socialist president had the chance to run again - and won - while Chirac still managed to enter the Elysée seven years later, remaining head of state from 1995 to 2007