Procurement

Managing supply risk is a must for SMEs

It is essential to manage supply risks proactively, through rational and non-emergency management to avoid running into serious difficulties

by Giampiero Volpi*

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Worker in forklift-truck loading packed goods in huge distribution warehouse with high shelves.

3' min read

3' min read

Supply problems arising from events such as pandemics, natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, have had global impacts on companies: market positioning, cash flow management, access to finance, financial stability. It becomes imperative to manage supply risks proactively, creating a view of the company in which to place undesirable events that may potentially occur and allow rational, non-emergency management to avoid incurring serious difficulties.

The Supply Risk Management Scenario

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Half of the Italian companies still do not use an organic system for the evaluation of their supply processes, one third use unstructured tools, the rest do not practice any risk monitoring. The practices adopted show a strong dependence on the nature, objectives and size of the enterprise. The large ones developed important solutions, in some cases even resorting to Artificial Intelligence methods when the complexity of the data required innovative algorithms to extract usable information for the procurement professional.

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Smaller companies, on the other hand, show an overall unpreparedness for the complexity and burdensome nature of the issue, and find themselves in difficulty due to their size and lack of sufficiently standardised practices to adopt. The problem is particularly acute in the manufacturing sector, whose activities are particularly exposed to extremely volatile supply markets. The problem must be tackled with the conviction that supply risk management is a fundamental commitment to protect the company, and with the search for solutions that are consistent with the reality of an SME: sustainable in terms of available budget and ability to plan adequate staff training.

A risk management project in an SME

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A possible way forward may be the use of incremental practices with scalable solutions: planning a virtuous path with a hierarchy of objectives that correspond to gradually increasing levels of orientation capacity in the company's risk map. Scalability makes it possible to settle on an intermediate level balanced between sustainability of the investment and effectiveness in combating the company's main risks.

Analysing business processes to identify the main risk elements is the indispensable first step. First, the undesirable events, each with its own causes: delays, interruptions, waste, safety stock, non-delivery, quality degradation. Then the actors involved in each event: the suppliers, with whom to associate risk factors such as financial soundness, operability, compliance, certifications; the purchasing materials, each with potential risk factors such as single source, production origin, availability, patents, which often represent the greatest threats to business continuity. Just think of the case of semiconductors and electronic components, materials present in almost all manufacturing sectors. The types of events, causes, actors and risk factors identified can be classified in a taxonomy, a formalised knowledge base of the risks that require attention and their location in the supply chain.

The taxonomy enables a second important step: developing a digital time series register of all the undesirable events progressively detected. It is an operational tool that, although still mainly qualitative, operates on structured data and allows research on the frequency of occurrence of adverse events, recurrence of causes and risk factors, correlations.

The further step from qualitative to quantitative monitoring, which provides more precise and solid indications on the most critical points that might require priority intervention, requires the estimation of the degree of relevance of each risk, which can be calculated with data collected from company systems (operational performance, compliance, ...), from specialised info providers on suppliers (company rating, reputation, media visibility, ...) and on materials (price trends, availability, production geographies, transport, geopolitical tensions, ...).

Finally, quantitative monitoring makes it possible to assess the severity of the potential impact of each risk on those aspects of the business that the company considers most relevant: reduction in turnover, loss of leadership, degradation of reputation, expulsion from a market. An example: by following the path of a material in the supply chain processes from purchase to finished products, it is possible to correlate the turnover related to these products with the material's risk factors. Evidence can be obtained of cases where risk levels exceed alert thresholds.

A digital system that governs a structured map of vulnerability to supply risk, even if it is not fully functional, is a formidable tool for collaborative management between corporate functions: purchasing, finance, production, research, development, sales. From sharing information to defining plans for prevention, reduction, mitigation, transfer to third parties, to monitoring the effectiveness of counteracting actions taken in order to consolidate or modify them in a timely manner.

*Strategic Business Analyst - Niuma

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