Only four EU partners have a direct interest in defending freedom of navigation in Bab el-Mandeb
Between the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, trade flows have already fallen by 44 per cent. Crosetto’s call to strengthen the Aspides mission is crucial, but only the ports of Italia, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia are directly affected by the instability, unlike those of other countries. Not to mention that protection should also extend to non-Italian-flagged vessels (which account for 5 per cent of goods in transit). This may make military intervention less strategically important for other nations
Any lasting impairment of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb would have particularly serious consequences for the Italian economy and, above all, for the national port system. Bab el-Mandeb forms the southern gateway to the Red Sea–Suez route and is therefore the only passage – short of circumnavigating Africa – for ships travelling from Asia to the Mediterranean.
For Italia, this geographical position represents a key competitive advantage: via Suez, Italian ports are among the first European ports of call accessible from the major shipping routes from Asia. Gioia Tauro, which in 2025 reached a record 4.49 million TEUs, bases a key part of its competitiveness on its location along the Suez–Gibraltar axis. The same applies, albeit with different characteristics, to Genoa, La Spezia and Trieste. Under normal conditions, approximately 40 per cent of the goods unloaded at Italian ports have passed through Suez.
The crisis that began with the attacks by the Houthis has already profoundly altered global shipping routes. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Red Sea Transit Monitor, in August 2026, 273 container ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb, compared with 674 in August 2023: a reduction of 59.5 per cent. Taking Suez and Bab el-Mandeb together, traffic was still 44.1 per cent below August 2023 levels.
It is therefore understandable that the Minister of Defence Guido Crosetto has proposed strengthening the protection of Italian merchant ships as part of the European operation Aspides, established in 2024 and extended until 28 February 2027. The issue is determining to what extent other EU Member States are willing to step up their commitment. The economic impact of a persistent crisis affecting the Red Sea shipping route is, in fact, not evenly distributed.
Egypt is one of the countries most at risk. In 2023, the Suez Canal recorded 26,434 transits and revenue of $10.25 billion. In 2024, the number of ships fell to 13,213 and revenue to $3.99 billion. Saudi Arabia also has a direct interest in the security of the Strait: its western coast, with Jeddah and Yanbu, and the energy infrastructure on the Red Sea, requires secure access to the Indian Ocean.
