Made in Italy

Beyond Trump's tariffs, the agro-industrial sector also fears European countermeasures

Areté's analysis of the possible impacts: emblematic is the case of cereals where Italy risks paying twice, as exporter of pasta and importer of wheat

28 April 2025

Nel 2024 le esportazioni di pasta verso gli Usa hanno toccato la cifra record di 700 milioni di euro

4' min read

Not only duties. In addition to the certain damage of tariffs, the Italian agri-food industry, which imports raw materials and exports processed products, risks suffering the mockery of European countermeasures in the global trade war. While at all levels the possible impact of the new US barriers on world trade in general and on Italian exports in particular is being reckoned with, the agro-industrial chain is also, and in some cases above all, the possible countermeasures to the restrictions imposed by the US.

The most emblematic case is that of pasta, which has just celebrated the export record set in 2024 to crown a long growth, with the United States the first non-EU market by 700 million out of 4.3 billion in total exports. As Italy has a deficit of around 40% of durum wheat, the raw material used for the production of pasta, the sector risks paying twice over. In addition to the (already visible) damage on exports, in short, the mockery of a possible increase in the cost of imports. Paradoxically, without even the benefit of a price increase due to tariff restrictions.

An analysis carried out by Areté, an economic studies company specialising in agribusiness, estimated the possible impacts of tariffs on the fundamentals and prices of the main agro-industrial commodities. The impact of tariffs, the study points out, could be both direct (especially on products with high trade shares with the United States) and indirect, due to movements in the dollar and oil. With the price of crude oil below USD 56 per barrel, at its lowest since 2021, the euro is back above the USD 1.09 mark.

"In markets where the US is an important net importer, as in the case of cocoa and coffee, with prices at all-time highs," explains Enrica Gentile, CEO of Areté - duties could have inflationary effects on the domestic market but not on the global market, where on the contrary the slowdown in domestic demand, combined with a weak dollar and falling energy prices, could have bearish effects. In short, it would be American consumers who would pay the cost of the duties in these cases. On the other hand, there are several cases where the US is an important exporter: dried fruit, but also maize, soya and others, where the possible countermeasures of the main trading partners could have very different effects'.

It remains crucial, therefore, to understand what countermeasures will be put in place by the European Union, which in the meantime, however, continues to reiterate that it is in favour of opening negotiations. EU decisions will be decisive in determining the possible impact of tariffs on agro-industrial markets.

The point made about cereals, however, can also be extended to soybean, a key raw material for the Italian feed industry which has an 80% deficit and of which the US is one of the three major global producers along with Argentina and Brazil. The US is also, the analysis recalls, the world's leading producer and exporter of maize. And while, as things stand, duties may have a limited effect on the market for this product, the most significant impact could be an increase in production costs or a substitution effect in favour of soya. While in the durum wheat market, the role of Canada could grow further.

The most visible consequences on domestic prices would concern the dried fruit and so-called colonial sectors, where the US role in the global market is predominant, as producer and exporter in the first case and as importer in the second. In fact, the US is a key producer and exporter of some of the major nuts, with 78% of global almond production and 85% of exports, 53% and 62% in the pistachio market, and 27% and 45% in the walnut market.

The EU, which is a net importer of nuts, especially from the US (from which it imports 92% of its almonds, 86% of pistachios and 54% of walnuts) could therefore benefit from an increase in supply as well as from the recent devaluation of the dollar. Here again, it will be crucial to monitor any countermeasures.

"The US is a major importer for many food products and raw materials, and a crucial exporter for others. The situation is widely diversified, and the impacts will vary not only from one market to another and depending on the strategies that the Trump government will eventually adopt, but also,' Gentile goes on to explain, 'depending on whether and how each of the other major global players in that specific market will respond, and on how the dollar and energy will evolve over the coming months. In general,' he concludes, 'for operators, diversification and, where possible, access to information tools and speed of reaction is crucial, because the elements of complexity in already volatile and difficult markets will increase'.