Quantum computing: D-Wave & Co's challenge to hi-tech giants

Beware, however: the risk is that the reality is different. That is, that the so-called 'catching a falling knife' materialises. In other words: the danger is that the action, instead of rising, continues, even between ups and downs, to fall. Faced with such a dual scenario, how is it possible to disentangle oneself? The answer - noting that no operational advice is given here, nor is any solicitation for investment made - is articulate.

A first suggestion can be offered by technical analysis. 'With reference to D-Wave Quantum,' indicates independent expert Silvio Bona, 'the stock reached its high on 15/10/2025. There - at the close of the session - the share touched $44.78. Subsequently, the company slipped, realising the three typical Elliot waves, coming to rest on the medium-term static support in the $20 area', which corresponds to the relative maximum reached last January. Similar, although the fall 'was less contained than that of D-Wave Quantum, was the behaviour of Rigetti Computing. In this case the historical top - also on 15/10/2025 - was $56.34. A level that was abandoned" to fall to the relative high of January "which - as in the case of D-Wave - was not broken down". Different, however, is the context of IonQ. The price record - like the other two companies - was reached in the early part of last October (13/10/2025) with the 'price of $82.09. However, in the downward movement, the share price fell below the relative record of January. A sign of greater weakness of the stock in question, compared to the other two'. That considered, 'all three cases,' Bona concludes, 'in addition to the fact that the area of the January 2025 high must be monitored to seize any risks of further declines, have so far failed to define precise technical figures that prelude a real restart'. Consequently, for retail, 'caution must be exercised'.

Up to this point, some evaluations regarding the performance of stocks on the stock exchange. The saver, however, can - to better understand the situation - refer to the dynamics of the relevant sector. That is: understand what quantum computing is and what its recent developments are. It is - it should be remembered - a technology that does not use traditional bits, 'stuck' in the values 0 and 1, but the so-called Qubits. That is to say: units of information capable of being in both states simultaneously. It is this characteristic that makes it potentially much more powerful than traditional calculators: the combination of high computing and processing capacity is, for example, advantageous in the training of artificial intelligence (Ai) models, allowing, among other things, the containment of energy consumption. It is not surprising, therefore, that large companies involved in Ai are looking at this technology with interest. There is, however, one obstacle: operating on a subatomic scale, quantum computers are inherently unstable, which makes their construction and management complex. This is why many experts believe that their full maturity is still far off.

Against this backdrop, two aspects that the saver must take into account are well understood. The first is that the companies described - given their frontier activity - although they cannot be considered start-ups, they are still unprofitable. An example? Rigetti computing - which, moreover, has announced the expansion of its business in Italy - in the first nine months of 2025 reported an operating loss of USD 62 million and a net red of USD 0.65 per share. Rather similar, albeit with different values and dimensions, are the dynamics in the other two realities: D-Wave, again between the beginning of January and the end of September 2025, posted a net loss of USD 1.01 per share, while IonQ - despite forecasting a turnover in 2025 of between USD 106 and 110 million - estimates that the average net loss at adjusted EBITDA level will be - always in the current financial year - between USD 206 and 216 million.

In short: it is clear that such realities do not move on the stock exchange so much according to profitability et similia (if cash flow is ever x-rayed), but rather according to - and above all - news flow. A few examples? The winning of an order - among others with defence - or a real technological evolution. Yes, hi-tech evolution. On closer inspection - here is the second theme that the saver must evaluate - it is precisely the front of innovation - and consequent competition - at the base of the recent fall of stocks on the Nasdaq. It happened, in fact, that Alphabet presented - in the first part of October 2025 - the results of a concrete calculation with its quantum chip Willow (presented on 9 December 2024). On the one hand, the processor turned out to be approximately 13,000 times faster than the best classical algorithm. On the other, while remaining a frontier technology, it has made the idea of using quantum computers for concrete applications more realistic. In the face of this, investors, instead of continuing to bet on small, focused companies, have staked their chips - related to quantum - on the colossus that, in itself, already offers significant revenues and profitability. The strategy, on closer inspection, is quite widespread. That is to say: operators, in order to expose themselves to the sector in question without taking on the risks of start-ups or companies far from profitability, look to the large technology groups - such as Ibm, among others - that are committed to this frontier of innovation.

If these are some strategic suggestions, what are the stock market multiples? With reference to the small caps described, the market indicators, given the incredible run achieved, are all a bit off. Thus, for example, according to Seeking Alpha, D-Wave's prospective price to sales ratio on 2025 is over 340 times. Rigetti Computing's, for its part, is absolutely unrealistic, while IonQ's price to sales ratio - although still too, too high - stands at a more 'moderate' 150 times.