Referendum: will there be a quorum? Here's what the polls say

Little more than two weeks to go before the referendum on 8 and 9 June (coinciding with the local election ballots) on citizenship and work approaches. In addition to the halving of the years (from 10 to 5) to obtain citizenship, Italians will be asked to vote on four questions on labour, which concern precarious contracts, subcontracting and dismissals, in the latter case cancelling some rules of the Jobs act.

Since these are abrogative referendums, their validity is linked to the participation of half of the eligible voters, which allows a quorum to be reached. As has often been the case in recent years, therefore, the question is not so much whether Italians are for or against, but whether or not they will go to the polls. And the latest polls on the subject are rather pessimistic.

The most recent survey (16 May) was conducted by Demopolis: only 46% of respondents say they are aware of the referendums. Another 19% know that there will be but do not know what they are voting on. And finally, 35% have not heard of them. Only 30% of Italians say they will vote, while 56% say they will not. Even considering a 14% undecided, in short, there would be no margin at the moment to reach the 50% plus one quorum. The estimated turnout at the moment would be between 31% and 39%.

In the majority (opposed to the substance of the questions) the line of abstention prevails, in order to fail to reach the quorum. Pd, M5s and Avs, on the other hand, are mobilised for participation in the vote and for a yes vote on the questions (with the exception of M5s, which on the referendum on citizenship left a free vote).