Sicily, the island under observation in the crisis with Iran

La base di Sigonella

in provincia di Siracusa

fonte: Google Maps

The heart of Sicilian criticality beats at Sigonella. The base is one of the most important logistical hubs for the US Navy and NATO surveillance in the Mediterranean. RQ-4 Global Hawk drones, used for reconnaissance and intelligence missions over the Middle East and Persian Gulf, regularly take off from here.

La base di Niscemi

in provincia di Caltanissetta

fonte: Google Maps

Together with Sigonella there is another key infrastructure: the Muos in Niscemi (Caltanissetta), the satellite system that manages global military communications. The Sicilian terminal enables the coordination of naval operations, drone missions and command systems on a planetary scale. But in the island's military network there is also a third, often lesser-mentioned piece: the Trapani-Birgi base.

La base di Trapani-Birgi

in provincia di Trapani

fonte: Google Maps

The airport, home to the 37th Air Force Wing, is one of NATO's main operational bases in the Mediterranean and plays a crucial role in the air defence of southern Europe.

Birgi is in fact one of the support bases for NATO's AWACS radar aircraft, the surveillance aircraft that monitor the airspace and coordinate long-distance military operations.

The facility is also set to grow in the coming years: the Ministry of Defence has initiated a project to turn it into a major international training centre for F-35 fighter pilots, the first outside the United States.

That is why, every time tension increases in the Mediterranean, Birgi automatically enters the perimeter of sensitive infrastructure along with Sigonella and Muos.

To protect the installations, according to various military sources, the air defence system has been reinforced with anti-missile systems SAMP/T, creating a sort of protective umbrella over the island.

Iran's missile capabilities have grown in recent years.

Some of Tehran's ballistic missile launchers have a range of between 1,500 and 2,000 kilometres, with some variants going up to around 2,500 kilometres.

The distance between Iran and Sicily, however, exceeds 3,000 kilometres. This means that the island is at the extreme limit - or beyond - the real operational range of much of Iran's arsenal. Rather, the most plausible threat concerns long-range drones.

However, to get to Sicily they would have to cross highly controlled airspace in the eastern Mediterranean and NATO countries, making such an operation extremely complex.

Added to this is the presence in the Mediterranean of US ships equipped with the Aegis anti-missile system and a defence network comprising advanced radar and Patriot and SAMP/T batteries.

These days in the Mediterranean Sea, the exercise Dynamic Manta, NATO's main anti-submarine activity in the region, is underway.

The training, whichtakes place every year between late February and mid-March in the waters off Sicily, involves ships, submarines and aircraft from different allied countries with the aim of strengthening the capacity to counter submarine threats.

For strategic analysts, a scenario in which Sicily becomes a direct target exists, but it is linked to only one case: an open war between Iran and the United States or between Iran and NATO.

In that case, Western military bases would become strategic targets. In Italia, infrastructures such as Sigonella, the Muos in Niscemi and the Trapani-Birgi base, which plays a key role in the surveillance and air defence of the Mediterranean, would be mentioned. But this would be a global conflict scenario, very different from the current phase of regional tension.

If the direct military risk appears limited, the vulnerability of the island emerges more strongly in the energy field. Sicily hosts some of the most important petrochemical poles in Europe: Priolo-Augusta (Syracuse) and Milazzo (Messina).

TheIsab complex in Priolo Gargallo and the Sonatrach refinery in Augusta represent crucial nodes for refining and fuel distribution in the Mediterranean.

The port of Augusta also falls within the geography of sensitive infrastructure on the island. The Syracuse port of call is not only one of the main oil ports in the Mediterranean but also hosts an Italian Navy base and logistical support facilities used by NATO fleets.

In the roadstead, units of the US Sixth Fleet can dock for refuelling and technical assistance operations, while on land infrastructures closely linked to the large Priolo energy hub operate.

In an international crisis scenario, the port is not so much an operational base as a strategic logistical hub: fuels, military vessels and energy routes connecting the Mediterranean to the rest of Europe pass through here.

For this reason, rather than a direct target, Augsburg is regarded by analysts as a critical infrastructure to be protected.

In recent years, the refineries' sources of supply have been diversified. After the handover of Isab from the Russian Lukoil group to the Cypriot fund Goi Energy, the logistics system was reorganised with supplies from Kazakhstan, Libya, Iraq and the United States.

International tension is not only measured by radars and anti-missile systems. It also has effects on collective perception. Tourism, one of the pillars of the Sicilian economy, had recorded positive signs: in 2025, presences grew by almost 12%. But the Middle East crisis risks fuelling a climate of uncertainty in the Mediterranean.