Somalia: Erdogan tightens security measures to protect Ankara’s investments

The maritime dimension represents an even ‘more significant’ change, explains Serhat Süha Çubukçuoğlu of Trends, a think tank based in Abu Dhabi. Çubukçuoğlu points out that the 2024 cooperation and defence agreement committed Turkey “to helping Somalia protect its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone from piracy, illegal fishing, smuggling and foreign intrusions. In particular, from rival countries or regions such as Kenya and Yemen’. Ankara has sent its own ships to protect drilling and seismic survey operations, and is planning a naval base to train Somali personnel and serve as a support hub between Bab el-Mandeb and the Indian Ocean.

The anti-piracy operations carried out in September, such as the recovery of the Cameroonian vessel Lutuf, reveal a shift in operational approach: from capacity building to direct interventions. “Somali and Turkish forces recovered the vessel, destroyed the pirates’ skiffs and killed 14 suspected pirates,” says Çubukçuoğlu – “The incident demonstrated Turkey’s ability to combine naval assets, helicopters, drones and Somali ground forces in an anti-piracy mission on the ground.”

Ankara’s escalation appears to be driven by a combination of factors: the protection of its economic interests across Somalia and strategic objectives linked to its own investments. Today, Ankara controls Mogadishu’s airport and port, administers the exclusive economic zone off the coast, and has secured semi-exclusive rights to offshore gas and oil exploration, which began with its vessel Çağrı Bey in April. ‘Turkey has invested heavily in Somalia and now has interests ranging from security and defence to energy, including offshore exploration, and strategic projects such as the satellite launch site north of Mogadishu,’ explains Federico Donelli of the University of Trieste. The growing military presence, says Donelli, is a “means of protecting and consolidating this projection, which now extends not only to Somalia but also to the region, covering the Gulf of Aden and the western Indian Ocean”.

Another pressing issue stems from internal tensions within the country: the separatist unrest pervading the Federal Republic, amongst the pro-independence administrations of Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland, and the unrest plaguing Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency. Greater centralisation ‘could ensure greater stability and protection for its political and economic interests’, says Donelli. The result is the defence and ‘shoring up’ of Mohamud’s power in the country, even at the cost of direct clashes with the autonomous administrations and indirect clashes with external partners. ‘Ankara has long supported the federal government, whilst Puntland and Jubaland have grown ever closer to the Emirates,’ explains Corrado Čok of the Med-Or Foundation – “To safeguard their own interests, the Turks have decided to shore up Mohamud, and this includes providing support in the clashes between the government and the autonomous regions, which they would like to bring back under central control.”

This approach has spilled over into controversial initiatives. Turkey has been accused of carrying out air raids on the coast of Puntland as part of the operation to recover the vessel Lutuf, a claim also echoed in the protests that erupted in the town of Doolow, in the Jubaland region, following the attack on the home of General Mahad Abdirahman Aden: a former officer critical of Mohamud’s policies. The details remain unclear, explains Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group, but there is talk of a raid targeting a figure hostile to the federal government. “It is likely that this incident will further heighten tensions in this part of Somalia,” says Mahmood.