Energy Decree: A2A, Enel and Erg under pressure at Piazza Affari

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Another day of selling on the stocks of utilities listed on Piazza Affari in the aftermath of the approval by the council of ministers of the Energy Decree. The most penalised stocks at the moment are A2a , Enel and Italgas . Outside the main basketIren and Erg . The latter is also grappling with rumours of a share reorganisation.

Going into detail, the new measures include a 2 per cent increase in Irap for energy companies for two fiscal years (2026-27), with a total expected revenue of one billion euro. On this aspect, according to Intermonte, "considering the share of domestic activities subject to additional IRAP compared to the total group activities, we estimate an impact on EPS 2026 of about 3% for Regulated Utilities, 2% for Integrated Utilities (with the exception of Acea at 1%) and for Erg. For companies in the energy sector, the impact is much more limited (we estimate about 1% for Eni) and substantially null for the other securities". In this respect, Intermonte points out that "in calculating a hypothetical worst case scenario for renewable producers, we assume a potential overall negative impact on the Pun (Single National Price) in the order of 25-30 euro/MWh. The stocks most penalised would be Erg, followed by A2A, Iren and Enel. We continue to believe that any interventions on the functioning of the electricity market are highly complex to implement and must necessarily be discussed at a European level, possibly as part of a broader review of CO2 costs for all industrial sectors".

In general, Intermonte underlines how "we continue to believe that potential interventions on the functioning of the electricity market are very complex to implement and must necessarily also be discussed at a European level, possibly as part of a more organic reconsideration of CO2 costs on all industrial sectors. A hypothetical reduction of gas and CO2 costs in the price formation mechanism on the electricity market would clearly lead to a reduction of Pun with a negative impact on renewable generators: Erg, Enel, A2A and Iren".

Analysts at Banca Akros also make an in-depth examination of the decree which, according to the experts, "confirms that the Italia government intends to separate final electricity prices from the cost of CO2 emission rights". Going into detail, the decree introduces new supervisory measures on the phenomenon of 'withholding of generation capacity' to ensure that 'the opportunity costs that can be estimated at the time of negotiation are the only legitimate economic reasons for offering a price above the marginal cost of generation capacity'. In addition, the latest draft introduces two schemes to reduce PV incentives in the second half of 2026 and in 2027 (-15% or -30%) for companies with PV systems above 20 kW that fall under the 'Conto Energia' (I-IV) schemes, in exchange for an extension of the duration of the incentives (three or six months). Companies will be able to choose between the two schemes.

According to Banca Akros, 'the Italia government appears determined to forcefully reduce electricity prices. Companies with exposure to hydro, wind and solar generation could be negatively impacted by lower wholesale energy prices'.