Tesla launches robotaxis: a trillion-dollar bet for Musk. Share price +10%.

The tycoon is now banking on AI to make a tarnished image attractive. The declared objective: to convince investors that Tesla's capitalisation, already close to $1 trillion, could double within 18 to 24 months. As analyst Dan Ives, one of the most optimistic about the stock, puts it: 'Tesla's autonomous era alone is worth at least $1 trillion'. For Musk, in short, robotaxis and Optimus are not just technology, but tools to justify still stratospheric multiples, at a time when competition is growing and profitability is falling.

In the short term, Tesla will have to overcome quite a few challenges. Regulation in Texas is permissive (the new framework will come into force in September), but other places such as California require much stricter procedures. The competition is also fierce: Waymo already has active services in several American cities, while Zoox (Amazon) has started production of its first models. Volkswagen aims to operate 1,000 autonomous ID.Buzz cars between Hamburg and Los Angeles by 2027. And among the competitors is also the Korean Hyundai, which with Kia is now one of the major players in the US car market.

The difficulties are not only external. In recent months Tesla has lost a third of its top executives compared to two years ago, in what The Atlantic called a 'brain drain'. The head of software engineering, the battery manager and the director of humanoid robotics have left. Add to this tens of thousands of layoffs in 2024 and the growing risk of tensions with some of the more progressive clientele, alienated by Musk's growing ties to conservative political circles and former President Trump.

Meanwhile, Musk promises to expand the robotaxi service to at least 25 US cities by next year, in parallel with the start of mass production of the new Cybercabs, vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, expected in 2026. "We'll probably get to a thousand cars in a few months and then expand to other cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Antonio," Musk said, predicting strong growth in 2026. Musk also speculated that Tesla owners who pay for the fully autonomous driving option - currently $99 per month, on top of the $8,000 paid at the time of purchase - could make their vehicle available in the robotaxi service when not in use. A project that will, however, have to overcome scepticism, regulatory constraints and a fast-moving competitive environment. For Tesla - which today remains the world's most highly valued automotive company, but perhaps not the most innovative - the robotaxi game has only just begun.