The impact of the Strait of Hormuz on fertilisers is being felt as far afield as the Sahel
30 per cent of urea and phosphate shipments pass through the Strait. Prices rising by as much as 35 per cent are reducing the fiscal capacity of North African countries to absorb the costs. This, combined with local political tensions and the Russian presence, is having an impact on migration flows. The importance of the Mattei Plan in terms of food security
Key points
Stability in the Mediterranean is no longer determined solely by naval patrols, but by the molecular chemistry of agricultural inputs. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggers a domino effect on fertiliser supply chains. For Italia, food security has definitively moved beyond the realm of development aid, becoming a primary national security imperative. Without upstream economic deterrence, anchored in agricultural resilience, the cost of reactive border control will become a heavy fiscal and political burden. The integration of energy diplomacy, agro-industrial investment and the management of migration flows is therefore no longer an option.
The bottleneck
The geopolitical vulnerability of the Mediterranean is inextricably linked to a narrow maritime corridor. According to cross-referenced data from UNCTAD and the FAO, up to 30 per cent of global trade in fertilisers by sea – in particular urea and diammonium phosphate – passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When maritime security in the Persian Gulf deteriorates, the surge in insurance premiums and fuel costs instantly drives up the landed price of agricultural inputs at West African ports. This inelasticity of demand forces smallholder farmers in the Sahel to drastically reduce their fertiliser application rates. To put this structural gap into context: whilst the global average application rate is 135 kg per hectare, sub-Saharan Africa stands at just 22 kg per hectare. A further reduction in these volumes causes yields of crops such as millet, sorghum and maize to plummet by 30–40 per cent. The knock-on effect transforms a localised shipping crisis into a systemic food emergency, depriving developing economies of the necessary buffer to absorb such shocks. World Bank data indicate that recent supply disruptions have caused global urea prices to double, with phosphate prices rising by 35 per cent. This macroeconomic shock translates directly into human displacement. In 2023, the Ministry of the Interior recorded exactly 119,369 arrivals of migrants and refugees in the Central Mediterranean. These are not random population movements: they are also the downstream effect of the collapse of rural agriculture.
The Mattei Plan
Faced with this array of systemic risks, the Italian government has launched the Mattei Plan. Officially presented during the Italy-Africa Conference in Rome on 28 and 29 January 2024, the plan marks the shift from reactive crisis management to proactive structural integration. The initiative mobilises a financial package of 5.5 billion euros. The strategic objective is to decouple North African and sub-Saharan food security from volatile maritime routes, transforming economic development into a tool for counter-insurgency and migration deterrence. This synchronised deployment of economic capital and financial intelligence ensures that migration deterrence is not merely a coercive border operation, but a holistic strategy for regional capacity-building that anchors partners to a transparent and sustainable economic architecture.
Local tensions
The alternative to this proactive engagement is a cascade of state collapses. The Russian Federation, operating through the reorganised paramilitary structures of the Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group), has pursued an asymmetric strategy in the Sahel, providing security to regimes in exchange for strategic access and the destabilisation of Europe’s energy and migration systems. At the same time, trafficking networks use cryptocurrencies and encrypted communications, generating billions in illicit revenue. Forecasting models indicate that, without structural interventions, recruitment by armed groups in the Sahel is likely to double within just five years. The convergence of vulnerabilities in maritime choke points, agricultural fragility and shadow economies calls for a radical strategic realignment. Italia possesses the institutional expertise, geographical positioning and industrial capacity to lead this transformation. By treating food security and fertiliser supply chains with the same strategic urgency as critical minerals and semiconductors, Rome can forge a Mediterranean architecture.
