Stem24

The real sign of an industrial renaissance? The number of 1 million start-ups, not the billions invested

We should stop chasing the rhetoric of billions invested, because international empirical experience suggests a different statistical order of magnitude to observe

by Francesco Capponi *

18 February 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Target: 90 to 1,000 1 million start-ups per year
The true bond: founders and talent, not capital
Changing metrics to change mindsets

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

To talk seriously about the industrial renaissance of start-ups, we should stop chasing the rhetoric of billions invested and focus on a different, less flashy but more predictive metric: the number of companies that manage to raise their first million euros in private capital.

In Italia today, around 1.5 billion a year is invested in start-ups. It is a figure that we often repeat (we are one-fifth of France and 1/200 of the USA) accompanied by the mantra of 'not enough'. The risk, however, is to draw the wrong conclusion: to think that if by decree or tax incentives we rose to 10 billion tomorrow, the country would have automatically closed the gap.

The overall investment volume tells us how mature a market is today, but says little about its ability to regenerate tomorrow. For a still young ecosystem like Italia's, the crucial indicator is the 'new entrepreneurial capacity' validated by the market. That is, how many start-ups each year manage to close their first 1 million funding round, a robust seed round.

The Law of Large Numbers

International empirical experience suggests a recurring proportion: for every 100-200 start-ups that raise at least 1 million, an average of one unicorn emerges within about eight years. This is not a physical law, but a statistical order of magnitude. If tomorrow Milan had 1,000 startups with a first 'millionaire' round behind them, we could say that the city is in the same category as London or Paris. This figure would be worth much more than a generic '5 billion has been invested in Milan', because it would certify the existence of a systemic pipeline, not single lucky breaks.

The goal: 90 to 1,000 start-ups of 1 million per year

Today, Italia generates around 60-90 start-ups per year that cross the one million threshold. This figure is too low to speak of 'Startup Nation'. To become such, the industry target for Italia should be clear: 700-1,000 new start-ups a year above the one million mark. Only with this critical mass, in a maturation cycle of 6-8 years, could we expect the physiological birth of 2-10 new Italian unicorns every year. We would not become Silicon Valley, but an ecosystem that produces global champions by statistics, not by exception. How many Italian graduates would migrate at that point?

The true bond: founders and talent, not capital

However, there is a structural constraint: founders. To generate 1,000 fundable start-ups requires, on average, at least 2,000 founders capable of convincing investors that they can put a million euros in their hands. The Politecnico di Milano enrols around 7,500 students a year. It is, to say the least, unlikely that one in four Politecnico graduates can found a €1M startup. This is where the challenge becomes national. An industrial renaissance cannot do without the pool of technical and scientific talent of universities such as the Federico II in Naples, La Sapienza, the Politecnico in Turin or Bologna. Milan may be one of the catalysts, but the flow of founders will have to be distributed much more evenly across the country.

Foreign (also) capitals as high value-added exports

The unknown question of resources remains: who finances 1,000 start-ups a year? It is unrealistic to think that Italian investors can cover the entire requirement. We must accept, and perhaps encourage, the massive entry of foreign capital. We must reverse the perspective: when an international fund invests in a start-up with Italian R&D, it is helping to pay wages and taxes in Italia. It is, in fact, knowledge export at a very high margin. The world pays for a share of our innovation and intellectual property. And if investors want an EU Inc, C-Corp or LTD should that be a limitation?

The alternative is what we have before our eyes: the diaspora. Today, foreign investors continue to buy Italia's talent, but by hiring it outside our borders, shifting tax contributions and added value elsewhere. The more Italian founders raise funds (including foreign ones) for Italia-based companies, the more we turn the brain drain into capital attraction.

Changing metrics to change mindsets

If we want a change of pace, we have to change the indicators of success. Let us stop looking only at the billions invested, which is difficult to measure by individual university or incubator operators, and start publicly measuring our ability to build the base of the pyramid:

1) How many new companies cross the one million threshold each year;

2) How many alumni of our institutions attract foreign capital and talent;

And always remember that every million euro abroad that lands on a start-up with Italian R&D is a flowering of engineers who do not have to pack their bags to look for a future elsewhere.

* Francesco Capponi is Co-founder & President of Lead The Future

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