The super El Niño is hitting an already warm planet. Here are the consequences

According to *Nature*, the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, – Ed. ) estimates that there is an 80 per cent probability that the event will become very strong by the end of 2026. These conditions could persist until at least spring 2027.

The most extreme scenarios predict an anomaly of around 3.6 °C in the waters of the tropical Pacific used to measure El Niño. This does not mean that the entire planet will warm by 3.6 °C. It is a regional figure.

As for the global average temperature, some simulations suggest that by 2027 it could reach around 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels. This would be an annual peak, not a definitive breach of the 1.5 °C target set by the Paris Agreement. But it would be a sign that would be hard to ignore. A fever one evening does not tell the whole story of the illness. However, it does indicate that the patient is unwell.

One point remains: the record is not yet certain. The models all agree that this will be a very intense event, but winds, ocean currents and heat distribution may still alter its path.

The economic consequences, however, could be severe. The 1997–1998 El Niño is estimated to have caused cumulative losses amounting to thousands of billions of dollars in the years that followed.

For the current event, some estimates cited by *Nature* put the figure at as much as 10,000 billion dollars by 2032.

These are models, not invoices that have already been issued. But they serve as a reminder that climate-related damage continues even after the event has ended: in the form of lost harvests, destroyed infrastructure, rising prices and postponed investments.

A very strong El Niño could also temporarily reduce the ability of the oceans and forests to absorb carbon dioxide and increase the risk of coral bleaching.

An extreme event can be managed. But multiple simultaneous shocks could destabilise the entire system. The problem is not just how much warmer the Pacific will become. It is how much leeway remains for a planet facing the next El Niño with oceans that are already warm and defences designed for the climate of the past.