The WHO sounds the alarm: in ten years’ time, one in four doctors will have retired

Over the same period, the number of elderly patients will increase. By 2030, one in six people worldwide will be aged 60 or over, and by 2050 there will be 2.1 billion people aged 60 or over. Along with this, chronic conditions and the need for ongoing care will increase, whilst a significant proportion of doctors currently practising will be leaving the profession. Nurses and midwives, on the other hand, have, on the whole, a younger demographic profile. Looking at Europe, in 13 of the 44 countries for which age distribution data was available, at least 40 per cent of doctors were aged 55 or over.

Part of the demand is already being met by staff trained abroad. In many European healthcare systems, foreign doctors and nurses have become a of the workforce.

However, international recruitment also results in staff being drawn away from more fragile health systems towards those able to offer better salaries, working conditions and career prospects. For this reason, the WHO has adopted a Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel and provides for special safeguards for countries already suffering from severe shortages.

Increasing the number of university places, on the other hand, takes time. It takes years for a doctor to complete their training, and some of those aged over 55 currently in post will have already retired by the time the students admitted now reach the hospitals. Furthermore, even having more graduates does not guarantee that they will go where they are needed: shortages may be concentrated in certain specialities, in outlying areas and in healthcare systems offering less competitive working conditions.

Women account for  67 per cent of the global healthcare workforce. And a second report published today by WHO Europe highlights another imbalance: in the 43 countries analysed, women account for almost 77 per cent of those employed in health and social care, but they earn on average 19 per cent less per hour than men and 28 per cent less per month.

The pay gap narrows but does not disappear when age, education, hours worked and whether the person is employed in the public or private sector are taken into account: it remains at 6 per cent for hourly pay and 10 per cent for monthly pay, and increases at higher pay levels, where it reaches almost 23 per cent.

For healthcare systems that will need to recruit millions of new staff and replace a generation of doctors in the coming years, the ability to retain existing staff will also be crucial. Salaries, working conditions and career prospects will be just as important as the number of newly qualified professionals.