Market Day

US inflation slows and pushes EU stock exchanges, Milan closes +1%. Euro back to 1.1 dollars

After falling producer prices, July consumer price numbers confirm expectations for a September rate cut. Ubs revises profit after Credit Suisse takeover, boosting optimism. Oil falls after US weekly inventory data beat expectations

La Borsa, gli indici del 14 agosto 2024

3' min read

3' min read

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Ubs returning to profit and a slowdown in U.S. inflation pushed European stock markets, which closed the session positive. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in July (the estimate was 3%) and 0.2% on a monthly basis, while the "core" figure met expectations (+0.2% on a month and +3.2% on a year). The figure, which shows the smallest increases since March and April 2021, matched that of the eve of the meeting, which confirmed the slowdown in producer prices, further allaying fears of a recession and fueling investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month.

Thus Milan's FTSE Mib was the best in the Old Continent and closed at +1%, the Paris Cac (+0.8%), Frankfurt's Dax (+0.4%), Madrid's Ibex (+0.3%) and Amsterdam's Aex (+0.1%) were also positive.

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I mercati a metà seduta

Wall Street closes higher after inflation

After the July consumer price data Wall Street closed positive. The Dow Jones climbed 0.61 per cent to 40,007.73 points, the Nasdaq advanced 0.03 per cent to 17,192.60 points and the S&P 500 gained 0.38 per cent to 5,455.11 points.

On the stock front, up Kellanova after the food maker agreed to be acquired by Mars for about $30 billion, or $83.50 a share, in cash. In trouble, on the other hand, Alphabet Class A  on rumours that US regulators are considering forcing the company to divest some of its units such as the Chrome browser and Android operating system.

Ubs returns to profit after Credit Suisse acquisition

Also fuelling optimism in Europe were the numbers released by Ubs, which returned to profit after its acquisition of Credit Suisse. The Swiss group ended the second quarter of 2024 with a net profit of $1.14 billion (market expectations were at $528 million). Total group sales amounted to USD 11.9 billion. For Ubs, this is the first positive quarter after two consecutive quarters of losses due to costs incurred to absorb Credit Suisse.

Ferrari and Tim in the spotlight in Milan, banks also do well

Turning to the stock market, Ferrari closed at the top of the list at Piazza Affari with a 4% increase, followed by Tim, which closed at +3.44%, after the falls of the previous day and after the words of CEO Pietro Labriola who, in a speech to Il Sole 24 Ore, provided clarification on the sale of Netco. The banking sector did well, driven by Ubs: Banca Popolare di Sondrio (+2.66%), Bper (+1.64%), boosted by the positive opinion of Kbw analysts, and Unicredit (+1.2%) led the rises on the Milan stock exchange. Tenaris (-0.5%) and Diasorin (-0.4%) closed at the bottom of the list.

Weak dollar, euro back to 1.1 at highs since January

The euro remains above the $1.1 mark, after touching a top at 1.1035, the highest since January 2. According to ActivTrades analysts, the euro/dollar would target levels around 1.1150 in the event of a breach of the 1.1010 mark. The yen was little moved, with the euro/yen at 161.8 and the dollar/yen cross at 146.8.

Oil down, US stocks higher than expected

A volatile session for the crude oil price, which took a downward turn after the much higher-than-expected data on weekly oil inventories in the US (+1.3 million barrels against estimates for -1.9 million). This is the first rise after six consecutive declines. Brent crude remained above USD 80 a barrel (USD 80.37 -0.37%), while Wti rose to USD 77.67 (-0.87%). On the eve of the event, prices had lost ground after five consecutive sessions of gains. Declining was gas at 38.9 euro per megawatt hour (-1.2%)..

Spread stable at 141 points, 10-year yield little moved

It was an uneventful day for the BTp-Bund spread, which closed at 141 points, the same value as on the eve of the meeting and at the opening, after having fallen slightly earlier in the day to 138 points. The return on the Italian ten-year benchmark BTp closed at 3.56%, the same value as at the opening, compared with 3.57% at the previous benchmark.

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