TV changes skin: less audience and challenge moved beyond 10pm

The old prime time is not dead. But it has certainly been 'occupied'. Under the blows of Rai 1's packages and Channel 5's letters, the line has slipped ahead, too far ahead, turning dramas, variety shows and films into late night programmes.

The 2025-26 season, photographed by the Frasi Study on Auditel data between 14 September 2025 and 9 May 2026, delivers a verdict: the system continues to lose linear audiences but, at the same time, shows a transformation in the modes of use, with the advancement of platforms, from Netflix on down (and here the arrival of Audicom, called in to do the measurements, will be important) and the shifting of the battlefield to 'access prime time', increasingly the needle of the scales for deciding schedules, advertising and habits.

Francesco Siliato, media analyst at Studio Frasi, puts a stake in the ground: after 32 weeks and three to the end of the season, 'the TV audience has decreased compared to the same period last season'. It is not a collapse, but an erosion yes: Total TV falls to 8.76 million on the average day, with 226 thousand fewer viewers, or -2.5%. In the 20.30-22.30 slot the audience remains impressive (20.77 million), but loses 413 thousand: 1.95%. The monitored publishers give up 2.2% over 24 hours and 1.5% in prime time. The 'unrecognised' - where platforms, pay, free, consoles and various uses of television end up - grows instead by 70 thousand individuals in the average day. This is not enough.

The central figure evidently lies in the duel between the two generalist empires. On the average day Mediaset (16 channels detected, which with the digital offshoots reaches 22 in terms of total audience) is at 3.35 million and 38.24% share; Rai (13 channels and up to 21 for total audience) at 3.24 million and 37.03%. Both fall back by just over 1%. But in prime time the picture is without nuances: Mediaset rises to 8.25 million, 39.71% share and +8.8% audience share; RAI drops to 7.60 million (36.6% and -6.4%). Mediaset, in short, is more followed than Rai both on an average day and in prime time. The overtaking seems to have a clear origin: the lengthening of an old but still evidently very valid product such as 'La Ruota della fortuna'. The Channel 5 game show has been on air for a good 236 days, an average of 63 minutes and 4.9 million viewers. 'Affari tuoi', which was unbeatable a year ago, closed at 4.7 million, but with a shorter duration: 53 minutes. Rai shortened because after 10pm it holds up better. Mediaset holds the wheel as long as it spins. Result: the two programmes cover the road until ten o'clock in the evening. "It is in fact the farewell to what was considered the traditional 'prime time'," Siliato explains.

Long stories pay the bill. TV dramas, films and variety shows start late and finish past midnight. Once that queue was third night: workshop and risk. Now it is the place where what costs the most ends. The producers protest, not without reason: a part of the audience goes to bed before the end and catches up later. Time-shifting becomes Rai and Mediaset's lifesaver, but also proof that linear TV is no longer enough to narrate success. The dramas produce the strongest deferments: "La Preside", "Un Professore" and "Sandokan", all by Rai 1, lead the long tail. "Mare Fuori" shows another mutation: a quarter of the audience, 25%, comes from the small screens previewed on RaiPlay, confirming the editorial choice made by Rai, which wanted to experiment, with this product, the possibilities of a link between traditional TV and its Ott platform. Sport, on the other hand, has another rule: live broadcasting remains sacred, but the small device is a refuge when the TV set is missing. Bosnia Herzegovina-Italy drew 685,000 viewers away from their TV sets for the penalty shoot-out that excluded the Azzurri from the World Cup. Clips then lengthen the events: Sky with Moto and Formula 1, Italia 1 with Coppa Italia, and 'Pressing' even reached 11% of its total audience in deferred mode.