UniCredit is at the bottom of the list, but progress is being made on Commerz

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A weak morning for bank shares: investors are assessing the prospect of lower global interest rates in the coming weeks, compared with what had been feared until Thursday, whilst trying to weigh up the negative impact on revenues against the positive impact on the general economic climate. However, whilst the Fed still appears uncertain about its next moves, in Europe the ECB seems set to tighten monetary policy as early as this month. On the FTSE MIB on the Milan Stock Exchange, selling pressure is weighing on Unicredit , Bper Banca , Banco Bpm , Intesa Sanpaolo, Banca Monte Paschi Siena and Mediobanca.

The domestic sector remains in the spotlight, not least due to the developments in the Risiko case. On the eve of the meeting, the ECB gave the expected green light to the merger of Mediobanca into MPS: the proposal will therefore be put to the shareholders’ meeting on 29 October, when shareholders will also be asked to vote on the public exchange offers launched by Siena for Banco BPM and Banca Generali. Next week (Thursday), Intesa’s general meeting will convene to approve the public takeover bid for MPS itself. Based on current share prices, Intesa’s offer represents a premium of 1.7 per cent, whilst Rocca Salimbeni’s public offers are at a marginal discount (0.1 per cent) and a premium of 8 per cent respectively.

As for UniCredit, the bank has stated that the discussion on the Commerzbank dossier between CEO Andrea Orcel and the Prime Minister of Hesse, Boris Rhein, was ‘constructive’ and focused on ‘the best way to move forward in the right direction, in the interests of all stakeholders and of Germany’. Commerzbank has also announced a new 1.2 billion buyback, which, in light of the planned cancellation of the repurchased shares, will also have the indirect effect of further increasing UniCredit’s stake in the company. “Commerzbank’s share buyback, whilst expected as part of the distribution plan, automatically strengthens UniCredit’s position,” write the analysts at Intermonte, calculating that “UniCredit’s voting stake could rise from 49.65 per cent to 51 per cent, further reducing the weight of minority shareholders without any further outlay on UniCredit’s part”. Furthermore, the comparison with Rhein is “a constructive sign, with the focus appearing to shift gradually from opposition in principle to the terms of a possible integration – a factor we consider favourable for the development of the matter”.