Wine

Exports to the US accelerate, but it's the inventory effect (pending duties)

In February, figures showed +20% for wine, +12% for dairy products and +9% for olive oil

29 April 2025

3' min read

The numbers are still positive, but they are not enough to erase concerns; on the contrary, they are fuelling fears of an abrupt setback.

The figures for imports of Italian agri-food products by the United States in the first two months of 2025 still show a plus sign. Aggregate figures released by US Customs and related to three major export-oriented sectors of Italian food: wine, cheese and olive oil.

Positive numbers that are evidently still unaffected by the duties introduced by US President Donald Trump on 2 April and that still speak of the rush of American importers to stock up on Italian products. And this is why they are not enough to reassure Italian companies.

A trend that had already emerged in the last two months of 2024 when a flurry of purchases of Italian wine (+20% in the last two months) had pushed the entire sector to close 2024 overseas exports with a robust +8.5 per cent.

The US continued to buy wine from around the world in early 2025. In the first two months of the year, total US wine imports exceeded USD 1.1 billion (+20.3% in value and +4.8% in quantity). In the front row are France and Italy. French wines lead the turnover with 510 million dollars (+54.1% compared to the first two months of 2024) followed by Italian wines (351 million, +10.9%). But, to a lesser extent, the US also continued to buy wine from Spain (+5.7%), Argentina (+18.3%) and Chile (+7.2%).

There was a similar trend in the dairy sector in which Italy is firmly the leader. U.S. purchases of Italian cheeses and dairy products in January and February reached $92 million (+12.3%). This is three times the turnover of France (30.8 million, -8.7%). On the other hand, purchases of dairy products from Spain (-8.4%) and the Netherlands (-16.8%) suffered a setback.

And US stocks of olive oil also continue, albeit with a sharp drop in prices and values. A total of 59 thousand tonnes of oil worth USD 433 million were shipped to the US in February. But while quantity increased by 9.4%, turnover fell by 8.1%. This is a sign of a consistent return to the peaks of 2024. In volume, sales increased from Spain (+6.4%), Italy (+2.8%), Tunisia (+33.9%), Turkey (+41.8%) and Greece (+9.5%).

"It is a pleasure to be able to comment on data that are still positive," explains the president of Federvini, Micaela Pallini. "We are aware that the numbers still reflect the stock rush in the United States between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. Our companies are busy trying to figure out how to absorb, at least in part, the duty, trying to avoid passing the burden on to the consumer. With my company in April we did not ship anything to the US but we will close the first four months at +7%. In general, April seemed very slow for everyone but I also have positive feedback from other markets, with a recovery in sales especially in the EU. In short, it is too early to take stock. Let's see".

"Export figures are still positive but we have no illusions," addedthe secretary general of the Italian Wine Union, Paolo Castelletti, "difficult times will come. We have urged our members to negotiate hard to absorb together with importers the weight of the duties that until 9 July will be stationary at 10%. But at the same time we have also urged them to avoid any sagging on the price front. The 'leaps forward' of some can harm everyone and damage the positioning of Italian wine built up over years of work'.

Giorgio dell’OreficeVicecaposervizio
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Luogo: Roma
Lingue parlate: italiano, inglese
Argomenti: agricoltura, agroalimentare, made in Italy, vitinicoltura, olio
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