Agri-food exports to the US plummeted in summer: the first effects of Trump's tariffs
23% drop in August. Italian Wine Union: despite the discounts, sales stalled and fell by 28% between July and August. Importers' stocks in the first months of the year are weighing heavily. Coldiretti: the next few months will show whether the trend reversal will be structural or if it is just an adjustment phase
The first concrete effects of the US tariffs on Italian agri-foodstuffs are arriving. The damage caused directly by the US tariffs (a 15% increase at customs) is added to the so-called "stock effect", that is, the fact that many shipments were made (in excess of the usual or current demand) before the new tax came into force (which had been widely announced), so as to avoid it, at least in its first period of application. This means that in the months following the actual application of the tariffs, warehouses are already full and this affects the level of foreign demand.
According to data processed by the Italian Wine Union, "despite the anti-coupon 'discounts' by Italian producers who lowered their price lists by an average of about 17% during the period", wine sales in the US in July and August fell by 28% in value terms. In the first eight months of the year, noted the UIV, there was "a progressive deterioration coinciding with the advent of tariffs, with a trend in value that went from +12.5% in the first quarter to -3% in the first eight months".
And the outlook in the short term, according to the UIV Observatory, is not positive: 'according to provisional customs data from Dg Taxud (EU Commission), a further double-digit contraction is expected in September'.
Su tutto l’agroalimentare il calo ad agosto è stato invece del 23% rispetto allo stesso mese del 2024. L’export in Usa ha superato nei primi otto mesi il valore di 5 miliardi di euro, in linea con lo stesso periodo del 2024, ma, sottolinea Coldiretti, si tratta del «frutto di un andamento discontinuo»: dopo un primo trimestre dell’anno dove le esportazioni agroalimentari negli States hanno visto una crescita media in valore dell’11%, nei primi tre mesi di applicazione dei dazi aggiuntivi al 10% si è passati al +1,3% di aprile, al +0,4% di maggio, e al -2,9% di giugno, per poi arrivare al -10% di luglio e al crollo di agosto. «Con le tariffe passate al 15% la crescita si è di fatto azzerata - dicono da Coldiretti - anche se saranno i prossimi mesi a far capire se l’inversione di tendenza sarà strutturale o se si tratta solo di una fase di assestamento».
With the US representing the largest non-EU market by value for domestic agri-food exports, it is not surprising that as many as 81% of Italians 'consider it essential for the EU to start new negotiations with Trump to obtain exemptions from tariffs in key sectors, such as wine' (Coldiretti/Censis report).
