A quantum leap in Ankara: gliding munitions paired with drones

Whilst Greece and Israel have signed a 3-billion-euro agreement to provide the Aegean with a multi-layered defence shield – clearly aimed at countering Erdogan – Turkey is continuing to develop its military capabilities. Ankara’s new capability lies in its ability to integrate sensors, drones, guided munitions, electronics, mass production and exports into a single, sovereign architecture. The TOLUN family, developed by ASELSAN and integrated onto the Bayraktar AKINCI drone, represents this shift: from the sale of individual platforms to the construction of a military-industrial ecosystem capable of generating political influence. In the coming years, Turkey could become Europe’s leading non-US partner for unmanned systems and affordably priced weaponry. However, its rise will depend on one decisive factor: its ability to transform technical demonstrations and record exports into operational reliability, NATO interoperability and stable relations with Italia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

TOLUN is not a cruise missile, but a 250-pound class guided gliding munition. This is a significant distinction. Its range depends on the altitude, speed and position of the launch platform; it therefore does not, on its own, possess the strategic penetration capability of a powered delivery vehicle. Its military value stems from its overall architecture: inertial and satellite navigation, mission systems, data links, attack planning and the availability of aircraft capable of approaching contested airspace. The family includes different configurations for surface targets, vehicles and personnel, as well as protected buildings and structures. The SADAK-4T multi-unit container allows four munitions to be carried, increasing the number of targets that can be engaged per sortie. The penetrating variant, which can be fitted with the ASAF fuze, meets the need to strike fortified infrastructure; configurations with proximity or delayed-action fuses, on the other hand, enhance flexibility against dispersed and structural targets. Deployment from the AKINCI reduces the cost of the attack compared with a mission conducted by a manned fighter. However, it does not eliminate the carrier’s vulnerability to modern air defences. The claimed resistance to satellite interference must also be distinguished from immunity: in an environment characterised by spoofing, multi-band jamming and degradation of data links, accuracy depends on the quality of the inertial unit, target updates and the resilience of the entire command chain.

According to the Turkish Ministry of Trade, the country’s defence and aerospace exports exceeded $10 billion in 2025, compared with $248 million in 2002. Its global share rose to 1.8 per cent, placing Turkey in eleventh place. Ankara no longer offers just drones: it now provides radar, communications, electro-optical sensors, electronic warfare, munitions, vehicles, training and maintenance. The 2026 half-year results for ASELSAN, led by CEO Ahmet Akyol, show revenues of 88.5 billion Turkish lira, new contracts worth $4.9 billion and an order book of 23.2 billion. The company reported $804 million allocated to research and development and $323 million to production capacity and mass production. The strategic focus is not on nominal growth, which is subject to Turkish inflation, but on converting foreign orders into currency inflows, investment and industrial know-how. This model enables Ankara to convert a military contract into diplomatic access, a technical presence and an understanding of the operational requirements of African, Middle Eastern and Asian countries. It is a form of influence that is less visible than a military base, but more enduring than a one-off sale.

It must be said that Turkish sovereignty is not the same as autarky. In 2025, trade in goods between the European Union and Ankara reached a record €217.6 billion: Ankara became the Union’s fifth-largest trading partner, accounting for 4.2 per cent of non-EU trade. 42.7 per cent of Turkish exports of goods are destined for the European market, whilst 35.3 per cent of imports come from the EU. The defence industry is therefore growing along an ambiguous line: Ankara wants components, capital and access to the European market, but at the same time seeks to minimise the risk that a foreign decision might disrupt its operations. The precedent remains the Russian S-400 system, which on 14 December 2020 led to US sanctions against the Turkish Presidency of Defence Industries and Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 programme.

For Rome, Turkey’s growth represents both an industrial opportunity and a matter of strategic governance. On 6 March 2025, at Leonardo’s headquarters in Rome and in the presence of Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, Chief Executive Officer Roberto Cingolani and Baykar Chairman Selçuk Bayraktar signed the memorandum that led to the establishment of LBA Systems . The company is owned 50 per cent by Leonardo and 50 per cent by Baykar, is based in Italia and aims to design, manufacture and support unmanned aerial systems. Leonardo estimates the European market for combat, armed surveillance and deep-strike drones at around 100 billion dollars over the next decade. The industrial terms are set out in the official Leonardo–Baykar statement. The complementary nature of the partnership is clear: Baykar brings platforms, rapid design capabilities, export experience and competitive manufacturing; Leonardo contributes radar, sensors, electronic protection, mission systems, certification and access to European programmes. Italia can thus become the interface through which Turkish technologies are integrated into configurations compatible with NATO standards and European requirements. However, this advantage comes with specific conditions. Rome must retain ownership of mission algorithms, ensure data security, traceability of components and control over re-exports. It must also prevent the collaboration from resulting in the transfer of critical capabilities without an equivalent return in terms of intellectual property, skilled employment and operational freedom. The stakes go beyond simply the production of drones: they concern who will control the sensors, software updates, weapons certification and information gathered by future fleets. If rigorously managed, LBA Systems could make Italia the European hub for the integration of Turkish platforms and Western electronics; if managed poorly, it could reduce Italia to the role of certifier and supplier of subsystems.