Mediobanca on the rise: Lovaglio's plan paves the way for a takeover bid for delisting

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - It is the fate of Piazzetta Cuccia that holds sway at Piazza Affari. The stock Mediobanca , in fact, rises on the day of the shareholders' meeting of Banca Mps on the introduction of the board of directors' list for the renewal of the top management of Rocca Salimbeni. All the indications, at the moment, converge towards a confirmation of Luigi Lovaglio's plan, who from the beginning hypothesised, before the ECB, a delisting of Mediobanca. Hence the market's buying, which now sees as increasingly concrete the possibility of a takeover bid on the reduced free float that is still not in the hands of Monte dei Paschi (which has 86.35% of the merchant bank's capital).

But the distance between the two stocks on the stock market at the moment is considerable. The shares of Mediobanca, in fact, are well below the values of the Mps offer because since then Piazzetta Cuccia has fallen (-9.7% since the closing of the Opas), while Mps has rallied (+16.3%). In summary, Lovaglio's opas provided for a consideration of 2.533 Mps shares plus EUR 0.90 in cash for each Mediobanca share. At current share prices, this is €24.25 against a Piazzetta Cuccia now worth only €19.1 per share. "If you take the Monte Paschi-Mediobanca exchange ratio, thisis at a discount of almost 20%," an analyst replies hotly. Therefore, in the event of delisting, the stock 'has ample upside probability, against an almost nil downside'. Even if - it should be specified - Mps is not obliged to launch the hypothetical voluntary takeover bid for delisting at the same price as the previous Ops, although it is in any case plausible that the eventual Opa itself will be at a premium to market prices. Logical, therefore, that investors are rushing to rake in the few Mediobanca shares still on the market.

Beyond the speculative logic, this also appears to be a signal of market approval of the Lovaglio plan. In this scheme, therefore, that postponement of the plan on Mediobanca's future, which even part of the Mps board of directors has tried to sponsor, would be set aside. And this is beyond the destiny of the banker himself, who in the coming weeks will play out his eventual reconfirmation at the helm of the Sienese bank.

First, however, there is the Mps shareholders' decision on the new rules, which envisage the list of the outgoing board of directors and the abolition of the term limit. 'We believe it is likely that today's shareholders' meeting will vote in favour of the amendments to the articles of association. We reiterate our view that a merger is preferable and would bring capital benefits,' Intermonte's experts add in a report.

In the meantime, Mediobanca also has other headaches. At least a dozen of the company's top private bankers - according to reports in the Financial Times - have reportedly switched to Deutsche Bank. Indiscretions that come a few days after the news that the new CEO Alessandro Melzi d'Eril has reorganised the top management team at Piazzetta Cuccia. According to the financial newspaper, the team 'snatched' from Deutsche Bank to Mediobanca includes, among others, top managers Luca Bavastro, Iacopo Berni, Luca Donghi and Diego Campagnoli. A sign of an increasing competition in the wealth management market in Italy. Waiting for a decision from Siena on the fate of Mediobanca.