Geopolitical paradoxes

An electricity cable between Qatar and Iran, despite the bombings

Doha is considering a power link with Tehran following the attacks on its energy infrastructure. Iranian Minister Abbas Aliabadi has confirmed this. The crux of the matter is not how much electricity can be transmitted across the Gulf, but who can guarantee it when it is really needed. Sanctions are also causing problems.

Il ministro iraniano dell’Energia, Abbas Aliabadi (Reuters)

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The cable does not yet exist. At present, it is merely a proposal and a figure in a budget. Yet, centred on that imaginary route, a decision is being made on a matter that Qatar cannot put off: whether the electricity that powers desalination and the pumping of drinking water might one day come from a country that, last March, attacked Qatari facilities.

Qatar is, in fact, considering an electricity link with Iran whilst it assesses the consequences of those attacks on its own energy infrastructure. Doha is seeking an additional source of supply in a country plagued by power shortages and war damage. Kahramaa, the public utility responsible for electricity and water, has commissioned Energoprojekt Entel to carry out a feasibility study worth 6.228 million Qatari riyals (the equivalent of 1.5 million euros). For an economy in which electricity also powers desalination and the pumping of drinking water, the crucial question is not the number of international connections, but the ability to receive power via a network that remains operational during a regional crisis.

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The race, the figures, the gap between the two

Documents from the Qatari Ministry of Finance list two tenders, 2069/2022 and 3559/2022, published in 2022, involving the same contractor and the same sum of 6.228 million riyals (1.5 million euros), awarded in June 2025. The relationship between the two tenders is unclear: adding the figures together would amount to inventing a second expenditure. On 16 June 2026, the Iranian Minister of Energy, Abbas Aliabadi, stated that the studies were nearing completion (by 2026) and that the project was at the start of implementation. The date therefore appears to be drawing nearer, even though the decisions required to transform a consultancy project into an infrastructure project are still pending (or have not been made public): total cost, technology, connection points, financiers, capacity and timetable.

What the Iranian figures really tell us

In June 2026, Aliabadi cited a nominal generation capacity of 100.315 megawatts and a target of 130,000 megawatts, but also reported that 4,700 megawatts had been damaged by the war and were therefore unavailable. The picture provided by the US Energy Information Administration is instructive. In 2023, Iran’s peak summer demand exceeded the available supply by 12 gigawatts; in 2022, the country had produced 361 terawatt-hours net, 93 per cent of which came from fossil fuels, with natural gas accounting for 85 per cent. Net electricity exports had fallen from nearly 7 terawatt-hours in 2020 to around 1 in 2023. Tehran knows how to sell energy across the border, but this experience does not equate to the availability of a guaranteed reserve during the hours when both countries may simultaneously face peak demand.

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The bombings

The problem does not stem solely from the electric scale. On 2 March 2026, the Qatari Ministry of Defence reported that two Iranian drones had targeted a water reservoir associated with the Mesaieed power station and a QatarEnergy in Ras Laffan. On 18 March, according to the same ministry, of the five ballistic missiles fired at Qatar, four were intercepted and one struck Ras Laffan; QatarEnergy reported extensive industrial damage. The following day, the Ministry of the Interior announced that two fires at three sites in the area had been brought under control. No structures collapsed, but dependence on the facility has increased.

The integrated power station of Qatar Power Company in Ras Laffan has an electrical capacity of 1,025 megawatts and a desalination capacity of 60 million imperial gallons per day. The multi-stage distillation systems utilise thermal processes linked to electricity generation: if the power supply to the pumps and control systems – which remain intact – is lost, imported power can help; if turbines, steam circuits or desalination units are damaged, the availability of external megawatts does not automatically restore the equipment to operation.

Qatar has a significant safety net in terms of water reserves. Kahramaa reports a storage capacity of approximately 2,417 million imperial gallons and a water demand of 420 million gallons per day in 2024. The strategic large-scale reservoir programme, launched in December 2018, had added 1,500 million gallons spread across five locations, along with over 650 kilometres of pipelines, at a stated cost of 14.5 billion riyals (3.5 billion euros).

Doha is not starting from a stand-alone network

Moreover, Doha is not starting from an isolated grid. Qatar is already connected to the Interconnection Authority of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, via two 400-kilovolt circuits at the Logistic Zone Super substation. The GCC architecture distinguishes between scheduled exchanges, available generation capacity and operational reserves; the Council’s secretariat has estimated that the grid will generate savings of over 952 million dollars by 2025.

The pipeline to Iran should therefore demonstrate its added value compared with a mechanism that is already operational. If the shortfall in Doha is local and the GCC link can make up for it, the new project can offer commercial flexibility without becoming indispensable. If several Gulf countries face shortages or attacks simultaneously, even external resources risk being interdependent and cannot be treated as independent safeguards.

The payments issue

The issue becomes even more complicated when it comes to payments. On 10 September 2026, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury tightened its policy on specific licences relating to Iran, introducing a general presumption of denial with provision for exceptions. On 5 October, it warned foreign financial institutions of the risk of sanctions for transactions with the restricted Iranian financial sector.

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This does not mean that any financial transaction between Doha and Tehran is prohibited. It means that the identities of the counterparties, banks, insurers, component suppliers and maintenance contractors, as well as the payment routes, determine the economic viability of the project.

Overall, technical cooperation can survive a diplomatic row, but an import agreement designed to safeguard vital services must be able to function precisely when security considerations take precedence over commercial incentives.

On 26 October 2026, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi proposed a security framework that would include Iran and Iraq alongside the six GCC states: a mere diplomatic guideline. On the other hand, the operational agreement between Iran and Turkey in January 2024 on the 400-kilovolt Van–Khoy line shows that Tehran is capable of negotiating cross-border electricity exchanges, which offers no guarantee that Qatar will be able to secure additional energy precisely at critical moments.

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