Super El Niño 2027: forecasts of record temperatures and global climate impacts
The climate phenomenon forecast for 2027 could cause extreme heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall, exacerbating the effects of global warming
“A record-breaking El Niño of gigantic proportions,” said Antònio Guterres, UN Secretary-General. Some Australian scientists have dubbed it “Godzilla”. People have been talking about “it” for years, but only now is it so frightening: why?
The rise in temperatures caused by El Niño has already had serious repercussions during the summer of 2026, but its effects are not yet over. Data from the WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) paint a worrying picture, far removed from malicious scaremongering. According to forecasts, the winter of 2027 will be characterised, particularly in January and February, by the highest temperatures ever recorded relative to the global average.
But what is it all about?
Let’s start from the beginning. El Niño is a major natural climatic oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system that recurs cyclically, generally every two to seven years. Underlying this phenomenon is an anomalous and periodic warming of the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño event, the trade winds – which normally drive warm waters westwards – weaken or change direction. This disruption allows enormous amounts of accumulated oceanic heat to be released directly into the atmosphere.
An El Niño event is defined as a situation where ocean temperatures are at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for at least five months. NOAA has estimated a 63 per cent probability that it will exceed two degrees Celsius by January 2027.
El Niño has been dubbed a ‘super El Niño’ for 2027 due to its intensity. The El Niño oceanic anomaly should not be regarded as an independent and isolated factor.
