Turkey’s blitz to become the enforcer of EU sovereignty in the post-Hormuz era

The EEZs, Exclusive Economic Zones, on the other hand, look like a line on a nautical chart. In reality, within the framework of the international agreements UNCLOS regulated by the UN, they represent the strategic and industrial reach of states seeking control over the seabed: from cables and energy to fisheries and the future of underwater exploitation. Not to mention that maritime jurisdiction also determines the deployment of military units. In this context, last week the Benghazi Parliament approved the Turkish-Libyan agreement, which aims to cement control over a vast stretch of the eastern Mediterranean stretching from the Libyan coast to the Turkish coast and skirting Crete.

The EU does not recognise this resolution in any way, and both Libya and Turkey were informed of this in advance. It is therefore clear that Ankara is deliberately moving in the opposite direction. In an attempt to gain control of the underlying resources, and to prevent Greece, Cyprus and Egypt from developing logistics and energy corridors (vital for the eastern flank) without involving Turkey. Furthermore, Recep Erdogan is well aware of the ongoing attempt by certain Middle Eastern countries to create alternative routes to Hormuz. Such routes would have no outlet without the Euro-African corridors.

In practice, Turkey is launching a pre-emptive boycott. Not to mention that the country led by Erdogan has a two-faced nature that reflects the dual nature inherent in the regime. On the one hand, it is an Islamic nation that looks towards the former Soviet republics, the Middle East and Africa. On the other hand, it is a NATO member state. So this very same entity, whilst dealing with the US over the F-35s is attempting to intervene aggressively (and is doing so through this Libyan agreement on the EEZs) to limit the room for manoeuvre of Exxon Mobil and Chevron in developing LNG infrastructure with Athens.

It should be noted that a joint naval exercise was announced in recent days. French, Greek, Cypriot and Italian military personnel are taking part. Eunomia, the name of the training operation, takes place every year. Beyond the activities themselves, the political significance lies in the fact that the participating countries recognise that Athens has jurisdiction over the maritime area. Indeed, it is the base at Heraklion on Crete – which is, of course, Greek – that defines the perimeter and manages the activities. The island in question, Crete, is precisely the centre of the dispute. And if the Turkish-Libyan move is not blocked at the UN, the repercussions would also extend to the central Mediterranean – an area of interest to the Italians and the French.

Finally, there is another issue known as Suez. If Turkey were to gain control of the area (at present, the agreement signed in Benghazi has been communicated to the UN, but this is merely a notification), it could hinder new investments that are vital to the routes passing through the canal. These routes are also becoming increasingly important for Saudi Arabia. Italian, Croatian and Greek ports are the ones most involved in Suez traffic. Not to mention that both Egypt and Israel would find themselves in difficulty. These are all hypothetical scenarios. But that does not mean these are merely matters of theoretical geopolitics. It is not only Russia that is interfering with European sovereignty. Turkey is more active than ever. And it has upped the ante after Greece and Israel finalised the crucial agreement known as the Shield of Achilles, which extends air defence coverage to virtually the entire maritime sector that Turkey, together with Khalifa Haftar, is laying claim to. Nothing is by chance. We shall see whether the dispute ends up before an International Court and what Italia – already active on this issue, alongside France – will do.