WTO and IMF: US tariffs average 20.1%, highest level since 1910. Trade 2025 estimated at +0.9% but tariffs will weigh on 2026

World trade in goods is expected to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025. This is according to the World Trade Organisation in a forecast update released today. The new estimate represents an improvement on the 0.2% contraction estimated in April after the White House announced punitive tariffs on the 2nd of the month but is still well below the +2.7% expected before the new tariffs were introduced.

The improvement in the estimate for the current year is also largely attributable to the frontloading of imports into the US - i.e. the frontloading of purchases by US importers to circumvent the immediate impact of higher tariffs. However, according to the WTO, the positive effect will be short-lived. In the medium term, tariff increases will continue to dampen trade. For 2026, the growth in world trade volume was revised downwards to 1.8 per cent, compared to 2.5 per cent previously forecast. According to WTO economists, geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation and trade tensions continue to pose significant risks to the multilateral trading system.

Tariffs applied by the US amount to an average of 20.1 % after the entry into force of new trade tariffs towards dozens of countries. The calculation was updated by the WTO and IMF: this is the highest level since the early 1910s, with the exception of a few weeks in 2025.

This theoretical rate, calculated by the World Trade Organisation and the International Monetary Fund from trade announcements, is based on constant trade volumes and was only 2.4% when Donald Trump took office on 20 January.

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08 August 2025

"Tariffs are having a huge positive impact on the stock market. New records are being set almost every day. In addition, hundreds of billions of dollars are pouring into our country's coffers." President Donald Trump wrote this in a post on Truth social. The president warned the judicial component from intervening in curbing the imposition of tariffs. "If a Radical Left Court ruled against us in an attempt to reduce or undermine the largest amount of money, wealth creation and influence the United States has ever seen, it would be impossible to recover or return these vast sums of money," the president clarified.

Against the backdrop of the tensions caused by the 50% tariffs increase, Brazilian Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin met with the US Embassy's Head of Business Affairs, Gabriel Escobar, with whom he discussed the possibility of opening a negotiation round including big tech and rare minerals.

Alckmin reiterated that the Brazilian government is committed to keeping the dialogue with President Trump's administration open, despite existing differences. "We can never give up dialogue. We must persevere, be resilient, demonstrate that" the tariffs increase has "negative repercussions for the United States as well, that it will increase the cost of American products and disrupt production chains," commented the vice-president, who heads the inter-ministerial committee created to address the crisis.

The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, a move that threatens to disrupt the global market and deal a new blow to Switzerland, the world's largest refining centre. The Financial Times reports this exclusively.

1-kilo bars are the most common form traded on the Comex, the world's largest gold futures market, and make up the bulk of Switzerland's bar exports to the United States.

India has suspended its plans to purchase new weapons and aircraft from the United States, in response to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, and cancelled Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's planned trip to Washington in the coming weeks to announce some purchases. Reuters reports this on its website, citing three Indian officials with knowledge of the matter.

The Financial Times reports that Apple has entered into a partnership with Samsung to produce sensors for the cameras in future iPhones. The agreement is based on a new chip production technology that will be developed in Samsung's Austin, Texas plant. Starting with the iPhone 18 range, expected in September, Samsung will use this technology to make three-layer image sensors, 'never before used anywhere in the world', reports the Financial Times.

For the newspaper, the deal marks a potential diversification for Apple, which until now has had Sony as the exclusive supplier of sensors on its smartphones. Unlike Sony, Samsung has a dedicated chip factory in the United States, a detail that will allow it to circumvent Donald Trump's new tariffs on imported technology hardware. Moreover, the collaboration is part of a broader Apple programme, with a planned $100 billion expansion of Apple's American Manufacturing Program, with a total investment of $600 billion to move more of its supply chain to the US. Samsung itself will produce artificial intelligence chips for Tesla in its Taylor City, Texas plant.

From Washington, during his nova visit, Japan's chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is attempting to reassure his compatriots and shed light on the trade deal signed about a fortnight ago with the Trump administration. "The US has promised to amend the presidential executive order on tariffs to properly implement the agreement, and will refund the excess tariffs levied due to the mistake," Akazawa clarified after talks with US cabinet members. The debated issue was whether the 15 per cent tariffs set by Trump for Japanese imports constituted a ceiling, on a par with the negotiations with the European Union, or would be added to the other tariffs already in place. Tokyo had insisted that this would not be the case under the bilateral agreement signed by Akazawa 'verbally' in Washington on 22 July; however, the country-specific tariffs imposed by Trump went into effect at 00:01 on Thursday without granting any special treatment to Japanese imports, local media note.

Crocs shares lost almost 30% in a single day after sales were forecast to fall between 9 and 11% for the third quarter of this year. Shares of the US company that makes the famous plastic sandals closed down 29.24% on Thursday, before recovering about 3% in after-hours trading.

During a conference call with analysts, CEO Andrew Rees said that US consumers remain cautious about spending on non-essential goods. In addition, the company expects to face a $40 million charge in the second half of the year due to tariffs on imports imposed by President Trump.

Clearances on Japan's automotive tariffs also fuelled buying in European automotive stocks. Japan's Chief Negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said after talks with US Trade and Treasury officials Howard Lutnkick and Scott Bessent that the US intends to revise the 'accumulated' rates on universal tariffs, as well as to cut tariffs on automakers and parts manufacturers (currently at 27.5%). Although the timing of the deal is not yet clear, global automotive companies have breathed a sigh of relief. The news paves the way for other similar agreements with other countries (primarily those in the Old Continent), which could ease the pressure on an already hard-hit sector.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will today hold a meeting with key ministers of his government to discuss the implications of the sharp increase in tariffs decided by the US. India TV reports. The meeting is scheduled to start at 13 local time (07.30 GMT, 9.30 a.m. in Italy). Although there are no official statements on the agenda, several sources - the Indian broadcaster points out - say that the new tariffs imposed by the US on New Delhi will be at the centre of the discussion.

China could make concessions in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, BofA economists Anna Zhou and Helen Qiao write in a note. Recent US trade agreements with Japan, South Korea and other nations have revealed common elements that could be applied to talks with Beijing.

Like these countries, China could offer similar concessions, e.g. by increasing its purchases of US goods.

Possible US tariffs of 150%-250% on pharmaceuticals would have a limited impact on the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, says Yurou Zheng, analyst at Morningstar, in a note. The proposed tariffs have dragged down the shares of drug manufacturers and companies in the sector globally. But Zheng notes that most Chinese healthcare companies under Morningstar's coverage either focus on domestic sales or supply the US through licensing agreements with US pharmaceutical companies, or already manufacture domestically. Sinopharm Group is Morningstar's preferred choice, as it is the largest drug distributor in China.

Shenzhou international group will probably only absorb 2 to 3 percentage points of the US tariff burden, Morningstar analyst Ivan Su writes in a note. According to the analyst, the new 20% tariffs on Vietnamese imports are unlikely to heavily affect the earnings prospects of the Chinese clothing manufacturer, which has factories in Vietnam. Only about 16% of Shenzhou's revenue comes from the US, and both revenue and net profits are on track for double-digit growth this year.

Despite falling demand from Nike, Shenzhou continues to receive strong orders from Adidas, Uniqlo and Puma, adds Morningstar.

Switzerland is looking for new ways to deal with Donald Trump's 39% tariffs, tariffs second only to those reserved for Brazil and India, and among the options is the name of Gianni Infantino. The Fifa president, originally from the Swiss town of Brig, has had a personal relationship with the tycoon for years and some Swiss politicians believe he could be the key to reopening a direct dialogue with the White House. 'Now is the time to move,' pressed national councillor Roland Buechel, an exponent of the conservative SVP, suggesting that Infantino should be involved as an informal intermediary, also on the strength of his ties with Economy Minister Guy Parmelin, who is leading the negotiations together with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter.

The Brazilian President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in a telephone conversation that lasted about an hour, discussed US tariffs and agreed to expand bilateral trade to 'more than $20 billion by 2030', and a state visit by Lula to India in 2026. "The leaders talked about the international economic scenario and unilateral tariffs" US. "Brazil and India are, at the moment, the two most affected countries," informs a note released by the Brazilian presidency. The two leaders also reiterated the importance of defending 'multilateralism'.

The trade war triggered by Donald Trump's tariffs has already cost carmakers around the world $12 billion. According to the Wall Street Journal's estimate - which states that the bill could rise further -, in addition to the direct impact of the tariffs, the auto giants will also be forced to deal with years of reorganisation and changes to their supply chains to adapt to the new reality. The most obvious response to tariffs, the newspaper explains, is higher prices and a shift of production to the US, two factors that could weigh 'on manufacturers' shoulders for years to come'. However, the White House trade policy could accelerate the industry's tendency to produce cars closer to where they are sold. This, despite the fact that in recent years, the large automotive markets of North America, Europe, and China have become increasingly divided by different regulations, technologies, and consumer preferences, and have encouraged automakers to design and produce their vehicles locally.

The US could soon collect up to USD 50 billion per month in tariff revenue. This was said by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the occasion of the worldwide entry into force of the new tariff regime imposed by Washington. 'I think we're heading towards $50 billion a month in tariff revenue, which nobody has talked about except the president,' Lutnick told Fox Business. According to Treasury Department data, the US collected nearly $30 billion in tariff revenue last month and $100 billion since April. The increase in July was 242 per cent compared to the same month in 2024. According to Lutnick, the increase in tariff revenue will come not only from existing tariffs, but also from upcoming tariffs that will affect key sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals.

The Lula government is concerned that the investigation opened by the US Trade Agency (USTR), at Donald Trump's request in mid-July, into Brazil's alleged 'attacks on US social media companies, as well as other unfair trade practices that harm US companies, workers, farmers and technology innovators', could be used as the basis for a further tightening of tariffs, following the 50% increase. Sources told the newspaper Valor Economico.

Among the points under the US lens is the Brazilian Supreme Court's decision to hold Big Tech liable for social posts deemed illegal. An orientation that, according to Washington, 'may trigger pre-emptive content removals and entail significant economic risks for US companies'. On the other hand, in a recent report, the USTR pointed out that companies that have refused to comply with orders have been fined, suspended or have seen their executives threatened with arrest. We need only recall, for example, the case of Elon Musk last year, with the suspension of X and the blocking of Starlink's funds.

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Switzerland will 'for the time being' not consider countermeasures to the 39% US tariffs. This was announced by the Swiss government, stating that the main focus is on 'support measures for Swiss companies' and the continuation of dialogue with Washington. "The aim of the diplomatic mission to Washington was to present a new offer to the US authorities: a goal achieved, which is a positive development," said President Karin Keller-Sutter, pointing out that "it was clear that Donald Trump would maintain the tariffs in the short term".

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The joint statement with the US on tariffs to follow up on the agreement in principle is on the table in Washington, "the ball is in their court" and "we expect them to help us move forward". This was said by EU trade spokesman Olof Gill during the press briefing. In addition, Brussels expects "any day now" the executive order signed by Donald Trump that will raise tariffs on EU cars from the current 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent, as foreseen in the agreement, the spokesman reiterated, without however giving a precise date.

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"From what we understand, the tariffs are now fully in place." European Commission spokesman Olof Gill said this at a press briefing in Brussels. Two days ago the same spokesman had indicated that according to the EU's interpretation of Trump's statements the tariffs would come into force on the morning of 8 August.

As part of the tariffs deal, the EU has conveyed to the US administration 'aggregate intentions regarding energy spending and investment by European companies in the US economy', 'these commitments are not binding: the Commission does not have the power to impose them. But they are intentions conveyed in good faith, after consultation with our industries and Member States to get a clear picture of the prospects'. This was said by the EU executive's trade spokesman, Olof Gill.

Tariffs are being triggered today for 92 countries with different rates depending on the agreements found, or not found, by governments after the famous Liberation Day on 2 April when Trump set out on a blackboard the various tariffs that would be triggered without agreements.

In recent months the major US partners have reached differentiated agreements that see the European Union, Japan and South Korea paying tariffs of 15% on most products, but negotiations are still underway to define the details of the individual agreements, amidst the jumble of indiscretions, declarations and denials by President Trump who, only yesterday, threatened the EU with 35% tariffs if it does not invest the USD 600 billion in the US that had been discussed in Scotland. The EU, for its part, has suspended its 93 billion US tariffs countermeasures for six months.