Vance-Orban meeting in Hungary on 7-8 April. Attack on Amazon and Oracle data centres in Dubai and Bahrain

"The US president's explicit threat to 'bomb Iran back to the stone age' refracts ignorance, not force, and constitutes evidence of intent to commit war crimes under international humanitarian law and the Rome Statute." The Iranian mission to the United Nations wrote this in a post on social media. "Iranian civilisation covers a span of over 7,000 years, while the United States is only 250 years old," the text continues. "Civilisations are defined by their history, culture, resilience and scientific contributions. The world is indebted to the civilisation and knowledge that Iranian scholars have given to humanity for millennia. Such a civilisation cannot be destroyed by bombing,' he concludes.

US President Donald Trump stated that "Iran's largest bridge" has collapsed and will "never be used again", threatening new attacks and urging Tehran to reach an agreement before it is "too late".

In a message posted on his Truth account, Trump wrote that 'Iran's largest bridge is collapsing and will never be used again' and added: 'Much more will follow'.

Argentina has declared persona non grata Iranian chargé d'affaires and cadviser Mohsen Soltani Tehrani, ordering him to leave the country within 48 hours. This was announced by the Argentine Foreign Ministry, explaining that the measure was taken after a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry containing, according to Buenos Aires, 'false, offensive and unfounded accusations' against Argentina and its authorities.

The decision, according to the France Presse news agency, comes two days after Argentina qualified the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a 'terrorist organisation'. Mohsen Soltani Tehrani is the highest-ranking Iranian diplomat in the South American country.

It has risen to "over 40" the membership of that sort of coalition of countries represented at the ministerial summit convened today by the UK to discuss post-war plans to restore commercial shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz, largely blocked by Iran in response to the US-Israeli war. British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper told the media this after the virtual meeting she chaired. Cooper evoked 'every possible coordinated diplomatic and economic measure' to achieve the reopening of the Strait, blaming Tehran alone for the current situation.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guardians announced that they had launched an attack against an Amazon cloud computing centre in Bahrain. This was reported by the Isna news agency.

A rocket hit the Shama base in Lebanon, the headquarters of the Italian contingent and the western sector of Unifil. This was reported in a Defence Ministry note, specifying that no Italian military personnel were injured. The origin of the rocket is being ascertained. Only minor damage to the infrastructure has been reported.

Minister Guido Crosetto, reports the note, is in contact with the Chief of Defence Staff, the Covi Commander and the Commander of the Italia contingent to receive constant updates on the situation and the condition of the personnel.

Iranian security forces took her from her home in the evening. They also took away her computer and mobile phone. And without giving any information about the prison in which she was imprisoned: the well-known Iranian lawyer and human rights activist Nasrin Sotoudeh disappeared in this way from her home in Tehran, where she was alone. Her daughter reported this on social media, accompanying the message with a photo of the woman smiling. "We just heard that mum was arrested last night while she was alone," writes daughter Mehraveh Khandan on Instagram. "When relatives went to the house, we found out that electronic devices had been confiscated, including mum and dad's laptops and phones. Mum has not been heard from so far and we have no information about the agency that made the arrest,' Mehraveh added. Sotoudeh's latest statements, critical of the regime, were made two days ago. In an interview with IranWire he said: 'A government that for half a century has shouted death slogans against this or that country has now put us at risk of death.

Sotoudeh, 62 years old, born in Tehran, a human rights lawyer and activist, oftencalledthe Mandela of Iran, has been arrested several times in the past for her work. Most recently in November 2023 - later released on bail - for protests against the obligation to wear the hijab. In 2019 she had been convicted to 33 years in prison and 148 lashes for defending Iranian women. She has won numerous awards such as the Sakharov of the European Parliament in 2012 and the Right Livelihood Award in 2020. She also gained notoriety through her film appearances, such as a cameo in Jafar Panahi's 2015 film 'Taxi Tehran'. Her husband, Reza Khandan, has been in prison since December 2024, for advocating women's rights in Iran. Sotoudeh's arrest is just one of many signs of the intensifying repression in Iran. Executions for arrests made during January's anti-government protests and for which a final verdict has been handed down have been taking place for the past ten days. In recent days, four political prisoners have been executed. Today, the name of an 18-year-old young protester, Amirhossein Hatami, executed by hanging, was also added. He was convicted of 'entering a military centre and damaging it', says the judiciary. But for him 'no lawyer' and 'no fair trial, only 'an extorted confession' after 'being tortured', writes the US resident Iranian journalist and dissident Masih Alineajad on X, who warns: 'his friends could be next'.

Iran is working with Oman on a protocol to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz after the war. This was reported by the Financial Times reporting Iranian media according to which Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that new rules will be needed for passage through the strategic sea route once the conflict is over. The move comes amid rising tensions over control of the strait, through which about 20% of global oil transits, and as several countries discuss measures to ensure its reopening and safe navigation.

The Lebanese Armed Forces withdrew from other villages on the border with Israel, including Rmeich, Ain Ibl, Braachit and Beit Yahoun, as the Israeli army advanced further and further into southern Lebanon, reaching a section of the Litani River. The IDF troops captured the second line of border villages, some 8-10 kilometres inside Lebanese territory, thus retaking the territory occupied by the Israeli army in 2024 and subsequently abandoned following the November ceasefire. According to some sources, Israeli forces reachedthe town of Biyada on Lebanon's Mediterranean coast, along with Ainata, Kounine and Qantara further east, advancing towards the Israeli line of control in the country prior to Israel's withdrawal from the South Lebanon Security Belt in 2000.

Two people were killed and others wounded during an Israeli-American attack on the B1 bridge in the city of Karaj, locatedwest of Tehran: This was announced today by the governorate of Alborz province. The bridge was under construction and was to become the longest in the Middle East, it added, pointing out that as a result of the attack there was a power outage in parts of Karaj. In the afternoon, explosions occurred in parts of the city and in the capital Tehran. Other cities in several Iranian provinces were also targeted by the US and Israel, including the provinces of Hormuzgan, Bushehr, Kerman, Lorestan, Isfahan, Fars, Kashan and Ardebil.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres today sounded the alarm about a world 'on the brink of a wider war' in the Middle East, calling for an immediate end to both US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran's actions against neighbouring countries.

"We are on the brink of a wider war that would engulf the Middle East, with dramatic impacts across the planet," Guterres told reporters in the aftermath of the speech with which US President Donald Trump sought to justify the US military operation.

One of Iran's leading medical research centres, the Pasteur Institute in Tehran, was hit in an attack attributed to the US and Israel. This was reported by an Iranian government official, while humanitarian agencies expressed alarm over the attacks on health facilities in the Islamic Republic. Hossein Kermanpour, a spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Health, spoke on X of 'a direct attack on international health security'. Founded in 1920, the Pasteur Institute is one of the oldest public health centres in the country and has played a central role in the development of vaccines and research into infectious diseases.

At the meeting on Hormuz, Antonio Tajani argued, along with colleagues such as the Dutch minister and the deputy minister of the Emirates, the need for a path with the UN to create a 'humanitarian corridor' as soon as possible, first and foremost for fertilisers and anything else needed to avoid a new food crisis in African nations. The Farnesina reported this in a note. The deputy prime minister also indicated Italia's willingness to consider participating in multilateral initiatives to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait, pointing out that a clear UN mandate is essential.

During a telephone conversation today, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman agreed to work together in the direction of the Opec+ organisation 'to stabilise the global oil market' in the face of the 'negative impact on global energy security' due to the war in the Persian Gulf. This was reported by the Kremlin. Putin and bin Salman expressed 'serious concern about the deteriorating military and political situation in the region, civilian casualties and the destruction of strategically important infrastructure', the statement further reads.

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, along with colleagues such as the Dutch minister and the deputy minister of the Emirates, supported the need for a pathway with the UN to create a 'humanitarian corridor' as soon as possible, first of all for fertilisers and for everything needed to avoid a new food crisis in African nations in particular. This was reported by the Farnesina after the international meeting on the situation in Iran and the consequences of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. "Ensuring the transportation of fertilisers and other humanitarian goods through the Strait of Hormuz is vital," Minister Tajani specified.

There is a new risk for airlines: not only the skyrocketing price of fuel, now the supply of fuel has become an unknown quantity since the war in the Middle East closed the Strait of Hormuz (see the Sole 24 Ore of 31 March). In the deepest crisis since the air transport pandemic that has already led to thousands of flight cancellations in the Gulf area due to the closure of airspace, the consequences of the continuing crisis are spreading like wildfire to Europe with the risk of grounding hundreds of planes due to lack of fuel.

Washington's claims about direct negotiations with Tehran do not correspond to reality. This was assured by the head of the Iranian diplomatic mission in Cairo, Mojtaba Ferdosipour. "There is absolutely no direct contact" between Iran and the US, the diplomat said. He added that US President Donald Trump's statements on direct negotiations aim to influence the financial and oil markets.

Last week, Trump claimed that Washington and Tehran had held 'very positive and productive' talks and postponed attacks against Iran's energy infrastructure. Iran dismissed reports of direct talks, saying it had only received messages expressing a desire to engage in dialogue.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had a telephone conversation today with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer "to exchange views on the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz". This was reported in a note from Palazzo Chigi, explaining that 'in emphasising the international community's interest in the full protection of freedom of navigation, Meloni and Starmer agreed to maintain constant coordination for initiatives aimed at de-escalation and guaranteeing the safety of trade routes in the area'.

Further reading

Iran, Bank of England: risk of financial crisis with unpredictable repercussions

01 April 2026

Iranian lawyer and human rights activist Nasrin Sotoudeh was arrested at her home, her daughter Mehraveh Khandan revealed on social media, adding that security forces seized laptops and mobile phones. The family has not been told which prison she is in. Sotoudeh, in his latest comment on the war, said that 'a government that for half a century has been shouting death slogans against this or that country has now put us at risk of death'. The woman had already been arrested and released in 2023 for protests against the hijab requirement.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has threatened Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem, saying that he will 'pay a very high price' for the escalation of rocket attacks against Israel during Passover. Haaretz reports. "You won't be able to see it anymore because you will be in the depths of hell along with Nasrallah, Khamenei, Sinwar and all the eliminated members of the axis of evil," Katz said. "But the terrorist organisation Hezbollah, which you currently lead, and its supporters in Lebanon will pay the highest price," he added. Katz also stated that the Israeli army will "cleanse Hezbollah and its supporters from southern Lebanon", saying that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will have "security control over the entire Litani region", referring to the area near the Litani river in southern Lebanon. The minister also promised to "pull Hezbollah's claws out of all of Lebanon."

Austria has rejected all US requests to authorise military overflights related to operations in Iran. This was revealed to Afp by an Austrian defence ministry spokesman. "There were requests and they were rejected from the beginning," Colonel Michael Bauer told the French agency, adding that any such request "involving a country at war is rejected". Austria, which is not a member of NATO, maintains a policy of military neutrality enshrined in its constitution.

Austria's refusal risks further fuelling tensions between the US and its European allies at a time of growing regional instability.

The urgency of "a de-escalation" in the Middle East was underlined today in a conversation between British Prime Minister Keir Sarmer and his Italian colleague Giorgia Meloni, which Downing Street reports. The conversation took place on the sidelines of today's virtual ministerial summit chaired by London on the Strait of Hormuz dossier and against the backdrop of the US-Israel-Iran war.

During a state visit to Seoul, South Korea, Emmanuel Macron considered that the war in the Middle East would not allow for a 'long-term solution' to the nuclear issue and called a military operation to free the Strait of Hormuz 'unrealistic'.

He also accused Donald Trump of emptying the UN of its substance, creating 'every day doubts about its commitment'.

Iran's two largest steel mills have announced that they have been forced to halt operations following the Israeli-US air raids. 'According to our initial estimates, the reactivation of the plants will take at least six months to a year,' Mehran Pakbin, deputy director of the Khuzestan Steel Company, was quoted by the website Mizan Online. The Mobarakeh Steel Company, located in central Iran's Isfahan province, reported on Wednesday evening that its 'production lines are completely stopped due to the intensity of the attacks'.

Further reading

Oil and rare earths: why the end of the war in Iran is decided in China

01 April 2026

The crisis caused by the war between the United States and Israel and Iran will hit Europe hard, and Italy will pay the highest price.

In 2026, in fact, our country's growth forecast has been diminished, from + 0.8% in the first expectations to + 0.4% today.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards carried out an attack on US-linked steel and aluminium plants in the Persian Gulf countries. This was reported by Sky News. These attacks are a 'warning' and, the Iranian Guards said, if 'Iranian industries are hit again, Tehran's next response will be harsher'.

Iraq has started exporting its crude oil via tankers to neighbouring Syria where they are then loaded onto oil tankers. This was announced by the Oil Ministry in Baghdad. Syria, reads a note, will 'ensure the safe passage' of crude oil and exports will increase 'gradually'. Iraq is heavily dependent on oil exports, which account for about 90 per cent of its state revenues.

Russia expects the conflict in the Middle East to end as soon as possible and is ready to do everything possible to bring the situation back to normal. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ata in the Kremlin, as reported by Tass. "We all hope that the conflict will end as quickly as possible. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump spoke about this. I repeat: we, for our part, are ready to do everything possible to bring the situation back to normal, as they say in such cases, to a normative state," Putin said. The Russian president noted that the situation in the region is a cause for universal concern. In this regard, he added, it is crucial for Russia to listen to Egypt's assessment of this issue, as a key country in the Middle East. "The situation in the region is a matter of universal concern," Putin said

Further reading/ Iran war, here are the benefits for Putin and Russia

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha held a telephone dialogue with his Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa'ar, in which they discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between the two states. "We discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between Ukraine and Israel and consolidate our bilateral ties, as well as maintain a high level of strategic dialogue. We coordinated further contacts at various levels," Sybiha said.

Heavy explosions were recorded in central Tehran. This was reported by Afp journalists saying that the shockwave of explosions was felt throughout the Iranian capital where buildings shook. Afp reports that it is unclear what the target was. Local media, including the daily Shargh, report explosions in the eastern and western parts of Tehran.

The US military has presented Trump with a plan to seize almost 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in Iran, which includes the airlift of excavation equipment and the construction of an airstrip for cargo planes capable of transporting the radioactive material. The Washington Post writes this, citing two sources familiar with the matter, according to whom the plan, in which significant operational risks are also highlighted, was presented to the president last week, after he had requested a proposal.

Trump's request for a plan, writes the US newspaper, shows his interest in evaluating an unusually sensitive and high-risk special forces mission. Limiting Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon remains one of the administration's main goals. But the plan, according to experts, would represent an enormously difficult undertaking of a kind never before attempted in wartime.

'You can't contradict yourself every day, you can't say the opposite of what you said the day before': this is how French President Emmanuel Macron, on a state visit to Seoul, comments on Trump's statements on Iran.

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The Eni in Piazza Affari (FTSE MIB). The resumption of the oil price rally, back above USD 100 (Brent +5.5 per cent to USD 107.79, Wti to USD 106.23, +6.1 per cent) pushed the entire oil comparo with Tenaris marking, Snam Rete Gas and Saipem). But the six-legged dog's stock benefits in particular from the decision of a number of analysts to raise the target price.

JP Morgan raises its target price to EUR 28, from the previous EUR 25; Berenberg raises its target price to EUR 22 from EUR 17.50. City also raises its target price to EUR 24 from EUR 20.5 and in detail the investment house, in a very substantial report, explains that "our investment rating on Eni is Neutral. This rating reflects a balance between above-average growth ambitions for the sector and, in our view, execution capacity risks, as well as an initial valuation in line with major peers. We also believe investors should consider that Eni has a higher cost of equity than some key peers'. The target price hike is based, according to brokers, "on a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuation" that is based on three macro scenarios. The first sees the price of oil, according to Citigroup's forecasts, 'at $82.1 per barrel in 2026 and $55 per barrel in the long run (in real terms, 2021 dollars)'; the second scenario contemplates 'mid-cycle refining margins from 2027' and finally the third a 'long-term euro/dollar exchange rate of 1.16'.

The Iranian authorities announced the execution of a man found guilty of carrying out actions on behalf of Israel and the United States during the recent wave of protests that shook the country in January.

"Amir-Hossein Hatami was hanged at dawn today" for committing acts "undermining national security on behalf of the Zionist regime and the United States," Mizan Online, the official website of the Iranian judiciary, reported. The statement specifies that these acts included an attempt to break into a 'military facility' in order to 'take possession of the weapons stored there'.

The war in Iran is already opening up a new phase of tension in the international energy markets, with possible repercussions for gas, oil and electricity. But it would be a mistake to read what is happening as an isolated episode. These crises are now recurring and are part of a profoundly changed geopolitical framework, marked by the return of the logic of power, the instability of strategic areas, the fragmentation of supply chains and Europe's growing exposure to external shocks. In this context, energy has increasingly become a lever of competition, pressure and vulnerability.

For Italia, the issue is particularly delicate because, among hydrocarbons, natural gas remains a pillar of the national energy and production system. Gas continues, in fact, to weigh very heavily on the country's energy mix, electricity generation and industrial consumption, with direct effects on the competitiveness of manufacturing, on production costs and, downstream, on the purchasing power of workers and pensioners. The structure of our production system therefore makes Italia more exposed than other European partners to the effects of new energy price rises.

S&P has significantly reduced its growth estimates for Italia in light of the impact of the war in Iran. In an update published today, the agency now forecasts Italy's GDP growth of 0.4% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027.
In mid-January S&P had forecast growth for Italia of 0.8 per cent in 2026 (confirming its November forecast) and 0.9 per cent in 2027.
For 2028 S&P sees growth of 0.7% (reduced by a tenth) and the same pace of expansion in 2029.
For the eurozone, S&P sees growth of 1% in 2026 (reduced by 2 tenths compared to January), 1.2% in 2027 (-0.2%), 1.4% in 2028 (-0.1%) and 1.2% in 2029.

"The war in the Middle East has interrupted the European recovery, pushing up inflation, weighing on growth prospects and complicating monetary policy. We expect the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to raise rates as early as the second quarter of 2026."

One month after the start of the Israeli-US offensive against Iran, disruptions in the supply of raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel price volatility. At the moment, the most affected sectors are oil and gas, fertilisers, petrochemical derivatives and aluminium. "The current escalation in the Middle East is hitting commodity markets hard. The magnitude of the current shock on the downstream stages of the value chain will depend on whether the conflict stalls," says Simon Lacoume, sectoral economist at Coface.

On the energy front, Brent crude oil, peaking at USD 119, has risen by 50% in a month, while the US Wti is hovering around USD 100 per barrel. As the conflict continues, this rise is already starting to spread along the value chain. In the US, retail prices of ordinary gasoline reached an all-time high ($3.96/gallon, +35% on a monthly basis). In Asia, diesel prices (Singapore) almost tripled since the beginning of the conflict. The rises also affectednatural gas, which reached EUR 55 per megawatt hour on the Ttf platform in Amsterdam, while the Asian benchmark (Lng Japan/Korea Marker) doubled over the same period, reflecting the continued vulnerability of import markets. In comparison, the US market appears less exposed to supply disruptions.

That of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "is a big problem. After this meeting there will be one with the foreign ministers of several countries to see what to do, it is not easy'. This was said by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, speaking at the 16th Maeci - Banca d'Italia Joint Conference at the Farnesina. "We are faced with high energy prices but also with the fertiliser blockade," he added, emphasising how the latter issue is also very important for the African countries. "Such a crisis," Tajani explained, "would cause a increase in migration flows".

The US and Israel's assessment of Iran's military capabilities is wrong, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for the Iranian military command's Khatam al Anbiya central headquarters, said today in response to President Donald Trump's claims that Iran no longer poses a military threat.

"Your information about Iran's military capabilities and power, as well as our armaments, is wrong. You know nothing about our enormous strategic potential," Zolfaghari was quoted as saying by Iranian state broadcaster Irib.

Attacks caused severe damage to the Pasteur Institute in Tehran. This was stated by the Iranian Ministry of Health, according to state media. Iran's Pasteur Institute is a medical research centre located in Tehran and is one of the oldest and most important research and public health centres in Iran and the Middle East, founded in 1920 following an agreement between the Paris-based Pasteur Institute and the Iranian government.

Iran 'will not tolerate the vicious cycle of war, negotiations and cease-fires'. This was said by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, as reported by Al Jazeera, in response to Donald Trump's speech, in which the US president warned that Iran must reach an agreement within two to three weeks, otherwise it will face attacks against all its power plants. "We will not tolerate this vicious cycle of war, negotiations, cease-fires and repeating the same pattern," Esmail Baghaei said, describing the ongoing conflict as "catastrophic not only for Iran, but for the entire region and beyond." Baghaei stated that Iran will continue to retaliate as long as the Israeli-American attacks continue and reiterated that Tehran does not regard its Gulf neighbours as enemies. "We have repeatedly stated that we are determined to maintain good neighbourly relations with all of them. The problem is that the US and Israel are exploiting their territories to conduct their military aggression against Iran," he concluded. "This is an unjust war imposed on the Iranian people. We have no choice but to react strongly," he added.

Iran threatens 'overwhelming and destructive actions' after Donald Trump's speech and warns the US and Israel: 'You know nothing about our vast strategic capabilities'. "Your information about our military power and equipment is incomplete," the Iranian central command Khatam al-Anbiya said in a note quoted by the Tasnim news agency, "You know nothing about our vast strategic capabilities. "Do not hope to have destroyed our strategic production centres of missiles, long-range offensive and precision drones, modern air defence and electronic warfare systems, and special equipment," the command further warns, "Our strategic military production takes place in places you have no knowledge of and will never be able to reach. Thus, claiming that the centres targeted so far are 'insignificant', the command threatened to continue the war until 'your permanent, final and ultimate surrender'.

Iran's military headquarters Khatam al-Anbiya stated that the US and Israel's understanding of Iran's military capabilities is "incomplete", promising to continue the conflict until the "final surrender" of the enemies. "Your information about our military power and equipment is partial. You do not know our extensive and strategic capabilities,' a spokesman said in a statement released by the Tasnim news agency. The spokesman also urged Washington and Tel Aviv not to delude themselves that they have destroyed key infrastructure: 'Do not think you have eliminated our strategic missile production centres, long-range offensive and precision drones, modern air defence and electronic warfare systems, or our special technologies. "Our strategic military activities take place in places you have no knowledge of and will never be able to reach," he added, calling the sites hit so far "insignificant".

The Iranian military promises 'devastating' attacks against the US and Israel after Donald Trump's threats.

During an Easter lunch at the White House that the press did not attend, Trump cited South Korea, Japan and even China as countries that need to be engaged at the forefront. "We have 45,000 troops at risk over there, close to a nuclear force. Let Japan do it. They get 90% of their oil from the Straits. Let China do it."

In that same speech, not captured in the evening address but leaked via a video later removed by the White House, Trump spoke of Iranian oil as a possibly missed opportunity. "We could just take their oil. But I'm not sure the people in our country have the patience to do that, which is a shame. If we stayed there, I would rather just take the oil. We could do it so easily."

Four missile launches from Iran into Israel are reported by the Israeli media as of midnight. Sirens sounded in the north of the country but no injuries or casualties were reported following the latest missile attack, writes the Times of Israel. According to the Israel Defence Forces, one of the missiles was equipped with a cluster warhead.

The Gulf States are considering building gas and oil pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, fearing Iranian control over the area. The Financial Times writes this. According to officials and industry executives, quoted by the financial daily, despite the high costs, complex political implications, and the construction time that will take years, new gas and oil pipelines are the solution to reduce the vulnerability of the strait.